California's 6th congressional district, redrawn after recent reapportionment, features Democratic voter registration advantages and suburban Sacramento demographics that favor the party in general elections. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced independent incumbent Kevin Kiley against Democrat Richard Pan, with multiple Democratic contenders splitting the vote but still signaling strong underlying support. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Likely Democratic, consistent with historical patterns in similar battleground districts. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these structural factors, though a sharp national Republican surge, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or turnout anomalies could narrow the margin before November voting concludes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
$40,607 Vol.
$40,607 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
4%
$40,607 Vol.
$40,607 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$17,111 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$23,496 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th congressional district, redrawn after recent reapportionment, features Democratic voter registration advantages and suburban Sacramento demographics that favor the party in general elections. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced independent incumbent Kevin Kiley against Democrat Richard Pan, with multiple Democratic contenders splitting the vote but still signaling strong underlying support. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Likely Democratic, consistent with historical patterns in similar battleground districts. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these structural factors, though a sharp national Republican surge, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or turnout anomalies could narrow the margin before November voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$40,607Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th congressional district, redrawn after recent reapportionment, features Democratic voter registration advantages and suburban Sacramento demographics that favor the party in general elections. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced independent incumbent Kevin Kiley against Democrat Richard Pan, with multiple Democratic contenders splitting the vote but still signaling strong underlying support. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Likely Democratic, consistent with historical patterns in similar battleground districts. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these structural factors, though a sharp national Republican surge, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or turnout anomalies could narrow the margin before November voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$40,607Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 6th congressional district, redrawn after recent reapportionment, features Democratic voter registration advantages and suburban Sacramento demographics that favor the party in general elections. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced independent incumbent Kevin Kiley against Democrat Richard Pan, with multiple Democratic contenders splitting the vote but still signaling strong underlying support. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Likely Democratic, consistent with historical patterns in similar battleground districts. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing accounts for these structural factors, though a sharp national Republican surge, unexpected candidate withdrawal, or turnout anomalies could narrow the margin before November voting concludes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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