Ongoing U.S.-Canada trade tensions, including 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods and Ottawa’s matching retaliatory measures effective in September 2026, prompted Ontario Premier Doug Ford to state that “everything is on the table,” including potential electricity export limits or surcharges. However, no federal or provincial government has announced or implemented any cutoff or throttle of cross-border power flows. Other premiers, such as New Brunswick’s Susan Holt, have explicitly ruled out such steps, while Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has prioritized targeted tariffs. Longstanding grid agreements and mutual electricity trade continue without disruption, and a similar 2025 surcharge threat was rescinded within days amid negotiations. With months remaining until the December 31 deadline and active diplomatic channels, traders assign high probability that no official restriction will occur.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
6% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
6% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.
An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.
A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.
Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing U.S.-Canada trade tensions, including 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods and Ottawa’s matching retaliatory measures effective in September 2026, prompted Ontario Premier Doug Ford to state that “everything is on the table,” including potential electricity export limits or surcharges. However, no federal or provincial government has announced or implemented any cutoff or throttle of cross-border power flows. Other premiers, such as New Brunswick’s Susan Holt, have explicitly ruled out such steps, while Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has prioritized targeted tariffs. Longstanding grid agreements and mutual electricity trade continue without disruption, and a similar 2025 surcharge threat was rescinded within days amid negotiations. With months remaining until the December 31 deadline and active diplomatic channels, traders assign high probability that no official restriction will occur.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.
An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.
A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.
Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.
An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.
A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.
Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Aug 25, 2026, 6:44 PM ET
Volumen
$3,604Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Aug 25, 2026, 6:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.
An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.
A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.
Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing U.S.-Canada trade tensions, including 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods and Ottawa’s matching retaliatory measures effective in September 2026, prompted Ontario Premier Doug Ford to state that “everything is on the table,” including potential electricity export limits or surcharges. However, no federal or provincial government has announced or implemented any cutoff or throttle of cross-border power flows. Other premiers, such as New Brunswick’s Susan Holt, have explicitly ruled out such steps, while Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has prioritized targeted tariffs. Longstanding grid agreements and mutual electricity trade continue without disruption, and a similar 2025 surcharge threat was rescinded within days amid negotiations. With months remaining until the December 31 deadline and active diplomatic channels, traders assign high probability that no official restriction will occur.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.
An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.
A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.
Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify.
An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed.
A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify.
Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3,604Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Aug 25, 2026, 6:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Canada trade tensions, including 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods and Ottawa’s matching retaliatory measures effective in September 2026, prompted Ontario Premier Doug Ford to state that “everything is on the table,” including potential electricity export limits or surcharges. However, no federal or provincial government has announced or implemented any cutoff or throttle of cross-border power flows. Other premiers, such as New Brunswick’s Susan Holt, have explicitly ruled out such steps, while Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has prioritized targeted tariffs. Longstanding grid agreements and mutual electricity trade continue without disruption, and a similar 2025 surcharge threat was rescinded within days amid negotiations. With months remaining until the December 31 deadline and active diplomatic channels, traders assign high probability that no official restriction will occur.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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