Ira Sachs’ “The Man I Love” leads the Palme d’Or market at 40.5% implied probability, buoyed by its status as the sole American entry, Rami Malek’s star power, and pre-festival distribution deals that signaled strong industry confidence. Early Croisette screenings have positioned Na Hong-jin’s “Hope” at 26% as a close second on the strength of the director’s genre pedigree and Neon acquisition buzz, while Pawel Pawlikowski’s “Fatherland” sits at 22.5% thanks to its historical scope and Sandra Hüller casting. Traders are watching for mid-festival reviews and jury signals to clarify momentum, with the competition’s mix of returning Palme winners and arthouse debuts creating room for late surges.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner
Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner
HOPE by NA Hong-jin 26%
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI 26%
THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS 22.0%
LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI 19.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 may 2026
HOPE by NA Hong-jin
26%
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI
26%
THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS
22%
LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI
20%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV
18%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke
16%
DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH
12%
FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU
11%
EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)
7%
THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS
4%
MOULIN by László NEMES
4%
A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET
4%
PAPER TIGER de James GRAY
4%
COWARD by Lukas DHONT
4%
THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI
4%
GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER
3%
ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY
3%
AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR
3%
PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI
3%
SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu
3%
NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE
2%
NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji
<1%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin 26%
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI 26%
THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS 22.0%
LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI 19.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 may 2026
HOPE by NA Hong-jin
$1,846 Vol.
26%
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI
$880 Vol.
26%
THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS
$103 Vol.
22%
LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI
$278 Vol.
20%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV
$876 Vol.
18%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke
$710 Vol.
16%
DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH
$38 Vol.
12%
FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU
$192 Vol.
11%
EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)
$121 Vol.
7%
THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS
$103 Vol.
4%
MOULIN by László NEMES
$103 Vol.
4%
A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET
$103 Vol.
4%
PAPER TIGER de James GRAY
$61 Vol.
4%
COWARD by Lukas DHONT
$171 Vol.
4%
THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI
$304 Vol.
4%
GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER
$119 Vol.
3%
ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY
$104 Vol.
3%
AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR
$162 Vol.
3%
PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI
$621 Vol.
3%
SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu
$1,154 Vol.
3%
NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE
$113 Vol.
2%
NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji
$72 Vol.
<1%
The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ira Sachs’ “The Man I Love” leads the Palme d’Or market at 40.5% implied probability, buoyed by its status as the sole American entry, Rami Malek’s star power, and pre-festival distribution deals that signaled strong industry confidence. Early Croisette screenings have positioned Na Hong-jin’s “Hope” at 26% as a close second on the strength of the director’s genre pedigree and Neon acquisition buzz, while Pawel Pawlikowski’s “Fatherland” sits at 22.5% thanks to its historical scope and Sandra Hüller casting. Traders are watching for mid-festival reviews and jury signals to clarify momentum, with the competition’s mix of returning Palme winners and arthouse debuts creating room for late surges.
The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volumen
$8,226Fecha de finalización
23 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ira Sachs’ “The Man I Love” leads the Palme d’Or market at 40.5% implied probability, buoyed by its status as the sole American entry, Rami Malek’s star power, and pre-festival distribution deals that signaled strong industry confidence. Early Croisette screenings have positioned Na Hong-jin’s “Hope” at 26% as a close second on the strength of the director’s genre pedigree and Neon acquisition buzz, while Pawel Pawlikowski’s “Fatherland” sits at 22.5% thanks to its historical scope and Sandra Hüller casting. Traders are watching for mid-festival reviews and jury signals to clarify momentum, with the competition’s mix of returning Palme winners and arthouse debuts creating room for late surges.
The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$8,226Fecha de finalización
23 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ira Sachs’ “The Man I Love” leads the Palme d’Or market at 40.5% implied probability, buoyed by its status as the sole American entry, Rami Malek’s star power, and pre-festival distribution deals that signaled strong industry confidence. Early Croisette screenings have positioned Na Hong-jin’s “Hope” at 26% as a close second on the strength of the director’s genre pedigree and Neon acquisition buzz, while Pawel Pawlikowski’s “Fatherland” sits at 22.5% thanks to its historical scope and Sandra Hüller casting. Traders are watching for mid-festival reviews and jury signals to clarify momentum, with the competition’s mix of returning Palme winners and arthouse debuts creating room for late surges.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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