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icon for ¿Los palillos atrapan una etapa superior de Starship por...?

¿Los palillos atrapan una etapa superior de Starship por...?

icon for ¿Los palillos atrapan una etapa superior de Starship por...?

¿Los palillos atrapan una etapa superior de Starship por...?

NUEVO
30 sep 2026
Polymarket

$1,977 Vol.

Polymarket

30 de septiembre de 2026

$83 Vol.

7%

31 de octubre de 2026

$12 Vol.

47%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX has completed detailed catch rehearsals with Ship 42 on the Pad 2 Mechazilla tower, exercising chopstick pins, lateral translation, pushers, and Ship Quick Disconnect alignment to validate procedures for the lighter, faster-returning upper stage. Flight 14, now slated for a September 22 orbital attempt carrying Starlink V3 satellites, will target a Pacific splashdown rather than a tower catch due to regulatory and risk considerations. Flight 15 hardware is advancing rapidly, with booster and ship static fires complete, positioning it as the leading candidate for the first Starship upper-stage catch attempt later this fall. Proven Super Heavy booster catches and recent tower upgrades support trader confidence in a successful outcome by late October, though the added complexity of orbital reentry speeds leaves room for iteration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.

If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Volumen
$1,977
Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX has completed detailed catch rehearsals with Ship 42 on the Pad 2 Mechazilla tower, exercising chopstick pins, lateral translation, pushers, and Ship Quick Disconnect alignment to validate procedures for the lighter, faster-returning upper stage. Flight 14, now slated for a September 22 orbital attempt carrying Starlink V3 satellites, will target a Pacific splashdown rather than a tower catch due to regulatory and risk considerations. Flight 15 hardware is advancing rapidly, with booster and ship static fires complete, positioning it as the leading candidate for the first Starship upper-stage catch attempt later this fall. Proven Super Heavy booster catches and recent tower upgrades support trader confidence in a successful outcome by late October, though the added complexity of orbital reentry speeds leaves room for iteration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.

If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Volumen
$1,977
Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ET

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Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Los palillos atrapan una etapa superior de Starship por...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de octubre de 2026" con 47%, seguido de "30 de septiembre de 2026" con 7%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 47¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 47% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Los palillos atrapan una etapa superior de Starship por...?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Aug 8, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Los palillos atrapan una etapa superior de Starship por...?", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Los palillos atrapan una etapa superior de Starship por...?" es "31 de octubre de 2026" con 47%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 47% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "30 de septiembre de 2026" con 7%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Los palillos atrapan una etapa superior de Starship por...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.