Trader consensus around a 92.5% market-implied probability that Costco will not raise its iconic hot dog price before 2027 rests on the company’s long-standing loss-leader strategy, which prioritizes foot traffic and membership renewals over margin recovery on the $1.50 item. Despite elevated input costs and broader food-service inflation since 2023, management has repeatedly signaled no near-term adjustment, consistent with the price holding steady for nearly four decades. This positioning aligns with Costco’s core value proposition and avoids alienating core customers. The principal risk to the current odds remains an unexpected policy reversal driven by sustained commodity pressures or a broader menu overhaul, though no such catalyst appears imminent ahead of the 2027 horizon.