Cuba's deepening energy crisis, marked by Energy Minister Vicente de la O'Levy's May 14 announcement of zero diesel and fuel oil reserves amid U.S. oil blockade, has triggered scattered Havana protests on May 13, with hundreds in multiple neighborhoods banging pots and blocking roads to demand electricity after 20-plus-hour blackouts. Despite food spoilage, transport halts, and UN humanitarian warnings, demonstrations remained localized and nonpolitical, dispersing without arrests under heavy but passive police watch. The regime's April prisoner releases exceeding 2,000 and defiant rhetoric reflect resilience honed through past suppressions, like 2021 unrest, with no organized opposition or military shifts evident. Traders' 72.5% "No" consensus embodies skepticism of full regime collapse in 2026 absent a mass uprising or external intervention, despite Trump administration sanctions and regime change signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cae el régimen cubano en 2026?
¿Cae el régimen cubano en 2026?
Sí
$246,801 Vol.
$246,801 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$246,801 Vol.
$246,801 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Cuba's deepening energy crisis, marked by Energy Minister Vicente de la O'Levy's May 14 announcement of zero diesel and fuel oil reserves amid U.S. oil blockade, has triggered scattered Havana protests on May 13, with hundreds in multiple neighborhoods banging pots and blocking roads to demand electricity after 20-plus-hour blackouts. Despite food spoilage, transport halts, and UN humanitarian warnings, demonstrations remained localized and nonpolitical, dispersing without arrests under heavy but passive police watch. The regime's April prisoner releases exceeding 2,000 and defiant rhetoric reflect resilience honed through past suppressions, like 2021 unrest, with no organized opposition or military shifts evident. Traders' 72.5% "No" consensus embodies skepticism of full regime collapse in 2026 absent a mass uprising or external intervention, despite Trump administration sanctions and regime change signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
Volumen
$246,801Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Cuba's deepening energy crisis, marked by Energy Minister Vicente de la O'Levy's May 14 announcement of zero diesel and fuel oil reserves amid U.S. oil blockade, has triggered scattered Havana protests on May 13, with hundreds in multiple neighborhoods banging pots and blocking roads to demand electricity after 20-plus-hour blackouts. Despite food spoilage, transport halts, and UN humanitarian warnings, demonstrations remained localized and nonpolitical, dispersing without arrests under heavy but passive police watch. The regime's April prisoner releases exceeding 2,000 and defiant rhetoric reflect resilience honed through past suppressions, like 2021 unrest, with no organized opposition or military shifts evident. Traders' 72.5% "No" consensus embodies skepticism of full regime collapse in 2026 absent a mass uprising or external intervention, despite Trump administration sanctions and regime change signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$246,801Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Cuba's deepening energy crisis, marked by Energy Minister Vicente de la O'Levy's May 14 announcement of zero diesel and fuel oil reserves amid U.S. oil blockade, has triggered scattered Havana protests on May 13, with hundreds in multiple neighborhoods banging pots and blocking roads to demand electricity after 20-plus-hour blackouts. Despite food spoilage, transport halts, and UN humanitarian warnings, demonstrations remained localized and nonpolitical, dispersing without arrests under heavy but passive police watch. The regime's April prisoner releases exceeding 2,000 and defiant rhetoric reflect resilience honed through past suppressions, like 2021 unrest, with no organized opposition or military shifts evident. Traders' 72.5% "No" consensus embodies skepticism of full regime collapse in 2026 absent a mass uprising or external intervention, despite Trump administration sanctions and regime change signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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