Severe economic contraction, projected at 6.5–10.3% GDP decline for 2026 amid fuel shortages and blackouts, combined with U.S. sanctions and secondary measures under the Trump administration, has deepened Cuba’s crisis. Yet the regime retains effective repression and institutional cohesion, while mass emigration of 13–25% of the population since 2020 has reduced the base for sustained protests. In June, Havana enacted 176 reforms expanding private enterprise, which Washington deemed inadequate, leading to further sanctions but also limited private fuel and food inflows to avert total collapse. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described Cuba as a failed state economically while signaling policy patience extending into 2028 or beyond. With no nationwide unrest or negotiated transition materializing, trader consensus assigns high probability to regime continuity through year-end.