The ECB Governing Council is expected to hold the deposit rate steady at 2.50% on October 29, reflecting broad consensus among economists and market pricing that recent financial tightening—driven by elevated sovereign yields amid French fiscal pressures—has already tightened conditions enough to warrant a pause. Headline inflation reached 3.8% in September due to energy price spikes, yet core measures have remained stable near 2.5% with limited pass-through to wages or underlying prices, supporting a data-dependent stance ahead of updated staff projections in December. Growth momentum has also moderated, reducing urgency for consecutive hikes. A December increase remains the next widely anticipated step if inflation risks persist, though any sharper escalation in geopolitical energy pressures or stronger-than-expected incoming data could still prompt reconsideration before year-end.