**Nuevas Ideas maintains overwhelming dominance in pre-election polling for El Salvador’s February 28, 2027 legislative contest, projecting 51–56 seats out of 60 and leaving the contest for third place among a fragmented group of smaller parties.** Recent surveys from Data Poll and IUDOP in mid-2026 show the ruling party capturing 51–86% of valid legislative votes, far ahead of any rival, while opposition and allied parties register single-digit or low-double-digit support. This structure elevates parties such as PCN, PDC, GANA, ARENA, and Vamos in the implied probabilities for third, with PCN currently favored among traders due to its historical departmental strength and alignment patterns. The addition of a six-seat overseas constituency and candidate registration opening October 1 through November 19 introduce variables that could shift minor-party rankings in specific departments. Low overall support levels for non-NI parties mean modest changes in turnout or localized campaigning could separate contenders, keeping third-place odds relatively fluid until closer to the vote.