Ongoing US and allied military operations targeting Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and nearby islands such as Greater Tunb and Qeshm have degraded Tehran’s ability to project power in the Strait of Hormuz but have not produced confirmed territorial changes on Farsi Island itself. Iranian forces continue to maintain operational presence across Gulf islands amid the broader conflict, with no verified reports of occupation, seizure, or handover by opposing actors. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to loss of Iranian control by the August 31 resolution date, consistent with historical patterns where limited strikes rarely result in rapid sovereignty shifts without sustained ground campaigns. Potential catalysts before resolution include further escalation in naval engagements or diplomatic agreements altering battlefield dynamics, though structural barriers such as Iranian defensive preparations and geographic proximity to the mainland limit near-term reversal prospects.