Celina Leão, the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, holds the strongest position in the October 4, 2026, race through a broad multi-party coalition that includes the PP, Republicanos, and other groups. Early August polls show her leading with roughly 32 percent support, ahead of José Roberto Arruda and a crowded field that includes Paula Belmonte, Leandro Grass, Ricardo Cappelli, and several lower-polling names. The large number of declared candidates fragments opposition votes, raising the chance of a runoff on October 25 and keeping first-round probabilities competitive. Trader consensus reflects her structural advantages from incumbency and alliances while pricing in uncertainty around turnout, late campaign momentum, and potential shifts in voter consolidation among challengers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de la elección del gobernador del distrito federal
Ganador de la elección del gobernador del distrito federal
Elisson 35%
Cappelli 26%
Professora Samara Mineiro 22%
Leandro Grass 22%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 oct 2026
Elisson
35%
Cappelli
26%
Professora Samara Mineiro
22%
Leandro Grass
22%
Kiko Caputo
22%
Expedito Mendonça
19%
Professor Robson
19%
Arruda
17%
Celina Leão
41%
Paula Belmonte
35%
Elisson 35%
Cappelli 26%
Professora Samara Mineiro 22%
Leandro Grass 22%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 oct 2026
Elisson
$40 Vol.
35%
Cappelli
$40 Vol.
26%
Professora Samara Mineiro
$40 Vol.
22%
Leandro Grass
$40 Vol.
22%
Kiko Caputo
$40 Vol.
22%
Expedito Mendonça
$79 Vol.
19%
Professor Robson
$40 Vol.
19%
Arruda
$40 Vol.
17%
Celina Leão
$122 Vol.
41%
Paula Belmonte
$40 Vol.
35%
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão, the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, holds the strongest position in the October 4, 2026, race through a broad multi-party coalition that includes the PP, Republicanos, and other groups. Early August polls show her leading with roughly 32 percent support, ahead of José Roberto Arruda and a crowded field that includes Paula Belmonte, Leandro Grass, Ricardo Cappelli, and several lower-polling names. The large number of declared candidates fragments opposition votes, raising the chance of a runoff on October 25 and keeping first-round probabilities competitive. Trader consensus reflects her structural advantages from incumbency and alliances while pricing in uncertainty around turnout, late campaign momentum, and potential shifts in voter consolidation among challengers.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ET
Volumen
$521Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão, the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, holds the strongest position in the October 4, 2026, race through a broad multi-party coalition that includes the PP, Republicanos, and other groups. Early August polls show her leading with roughly 32 percent support, ahead of José Roberto Arruda and a crowded field that includes Paula Belmonte, Leandro Grass, Ricardo Cappelli, and several lower-polling names. The large number of declared candidates fragments opposition votes, raising the chance of a runoff on October 25 and keeping first-round probabilities competitive. Trader consensus reflects her structural advantages from incumbency and alliances while pricing in uncertainty around turnout, late campaign momentum, and potential shifts in voter consolidation among challengers.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$521Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Celina Leão, the incumbent governor of Brazil’s Federal District who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha’s resignation, holds the strongest position in the October 4, 2026, race through a broad multi-party coalition that includes the PP, Republicanos, and other groups. Early August polls show her leading with roughly 32 percent support, ahead of José Roberto Arruda and a crowded field that includes Paula Belmonte, Leandro Grass, Ricardo Cappelli, and several lower-polling names. The large number of declared candidates fragments opposition votes, raising the chance of a runoff on October 25 and keeping first-round probabilities competitive. Trader consensus reflects her structural advantages from incumbency and alliances while pricing in uncertainty around turnout, late campaign momentum, and potential shifts in voter consolidation among challengers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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