Traders assign a 99.5% probability against the Omani co-pilot in the September 30 Flydubai cockpit incident reaching Israel by October 31 because he was transferred to UAE custody days after the event and remains there under a UAE-led investigation into the alleged attempt to crash the Dubai-Tel Aviv flight. Israeli officials participate as observers or through questioning but have not sought custody, with reports indicating the suspect likely acted alone and no formal extradition process underway. UAE authorities control the timeline and venue for any proceedings, consistent with standard handling of aviation incidents involving their carriers and foreign nationals. The narrow window to October 31 further limits prospects for a diplomatic transfer absent an abrupt policy shift. A sudden UAE decision to extradite the suspect or a major new investigative development could still alter the outcome before the deadline.