Persistent divisions within France's fragmented left-wing parties have driven overwhelming trader consensus toward cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary. Key groups including La France Insoumise, the Socialist Party, and Place Publique have declined to participate from the outset, while internal Socialist disputes over alliances and the March 2026 municipal election results have intensified rifts. Organizers from L'Après, Les Écologistes, and Debout! face narrow support and procedural hurdles ahead of the planned October date. This setup has produced the current implied probability exceeding 90 percent for cancellation. A reversal would require rapid, verifiable commitments from additional parties or a formal reversal of prior non-participation announcements before the resolution window closes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCancelado 92.1%
François Ruffin 1.2%
Marine Tondelier <1%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$202,724 Vol.
$202,724 Vol.
11 oct 2026
Cancelado
92%
François Ruffin
1%
Marine Tondelier
1%
Clémentine Autain
1%
Lydie Massard
<1%
Benjamin Lucas-Lundy
<1%
Cancelado 92.1%
François Ruffin 1.2%
Marine Tondelier <1%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$202,724 Vol.
$202,724 Vol.
11 oct 2026
Cancelado
$67,250 Vol.
92%
François Ruffin
$31,112 Vol.
1%
Marine Tondelier
$49,561 Vol.
1%
Clémentine Autain
$7,357 Vol.
1%
Lydie Massard
$43,228 Vol.
<1%
Benjamin Lucas-Lundy
$4,216 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Persistent divisions within France's fragmented left-wing parties have driven overwhelming trader consensus toward cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary. Key groups including La France Insoumise, the Socialist Party, and Place Publique have declined to participate from the outset, while internal Socialist disputes over alliances and the March 2026 municipal election results have intensified rifts. Organizers from L'Après, Les Écologistes, and Debout! face narrow support and procedural hurdles ahead of the planned October date. This setup has produced the current implied probability exceeding 90 percent for cancellation. A reversal would require rapid, verifiable commitments from additional parties or a formal reversal of prior non-participation announcements before the resolution window closes.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volumen
$202,724Fecha de finalización
11 oct 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Persistent divisions within France's fragmented left-wing parties have driven overwhelming trader consensus toward cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary. Key groups including La France Insoumise, the Socialist Party, and Place Publique have declined to participate from the outset, while internal Socialist disputes over alliances and the March 2026 municipal election results have intensified rifts. Organizers from L'Après, Les Écologistes, and Debout! face narrow support and procedural hurdles ahead of the planned October date. This setup has produced the current implied probability exceeding 90 percent for cancellation. A reversal would require rapid, verifiable commitments from additional parties or a formal reversal of prior non-participation announcements before the resolution window closes.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$202,724Fecha de finalización
11 oct 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent divisions within France's fragmented left-wing parties have driven overwhelming trader consensus toward cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary. Key groups including La France Insoumise, the Socialist Party, and Place Publique have declined to participate from the outset, while internal Socialist disputes over alliances and the March 2026 municipal election results have intensified rifts. Organizers from L'Après, Les Écologistes, and Debout! face narrow support and procedural hurdles ahead of the planned October date. This setup has produced the current implied probability exceeding 90 percent for cancellation. A reversal would require rapid, verifiable commitments from additional parties or a formal reversal of prior non-participation announcements before the resolution window closes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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