Adama Barrow, the incumbent National People’s Party president seeking a third term, leads the December 5, 2026, first-past-the-post contest at 71.5 percent implied probability. Traders cite his consistent edge in recent Gambia Participates polling on perceived electability (51 percent) over Ousainou Darboe of the United Democratic Party (23 percent) and Talib Ahmed Bensouda (12 percent), alongside regional strongholds and the absence of a unified opposition coalition. Darboe sits at 15.5 percent while Essa Faal, Mama Kandeh, and smaller candidates trail below 7 percent amid fragmented alliance talks. The latest catalyst is the September 2026 electricity crisis and resulting protests, which Barrow addressed by declaring a national emergency and pledging new generation capacity by October; this has not materially shifted the market’s assessment of his frontrunner status three months before voting.