Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026, with xAI (now integrated under SpaceX AI) missing successive targets of late 2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026 while the model continues training on the expanded Colossus supercluster. Traders have responded to these repeated slips and the August 2026 confirmation of a year-end goal by shifting focus to an end-of-year resolution window, amid interim releases such as Grok 4.5 and 4.6 that demonstrate ongoing progress on coding and agentic capabilities but do not fulfill the flagship milestone. Key variables include compute scaling timelines, integration of SpaceX engineering data, and competition from contemporaneous frontier models, all of which continue to shape market-implied odds around the final 2026 deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
31 ago 2026
31 de agosto
<1%
31 de octubre
32%
30 de noviembre
50%
31 de diciembre
70%
$6,580 Vol.
31 de agosto
$3,006 Vol.
<1%
31 de octubre
$340 Vol.
32%
30 de noviembre
$0 Vol.
50%
31 de diciembre
$1,711 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026, with xAI (now integrated under SpaceX AI) missing successive targets of late 2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026 while the model continues training on the expanded Colossus supercluster. Traders have responded to these repeated slips and the August 2026 confirmation of a year-end goal by shifting focus to an end-of-year resolution window, amid interim releases such as Grok 4.5 and 4.6 that demonstrate ongoing progress on coding and agentic capabilities but do not fulfill the flagship milestone. Key variables include compute scaling timelines, integration of SpaceX engineering data, and competition from contemporaneous frontier models, all of which continue to shape market-implied odds around the final 2026 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volumen
$6,580Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026, with xAI (now integrated under SpaceX AI) missing successive targets of late 2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026 while the model continues training on the expanded Colossus supercluster. Traders have responded to these repeated slips and the August 2026 confirmation of a year-end goal by shifting focus to an end-of-year resolution window, amid interim releases such as Grok 4.5 and 4.6 that demonstrate ongoing progress on coding and agentic capabilities but do not fulfill the flagship milestone. Key variables include compute scaling timelines, integration of SpaceX engineering data, and competition from contemporaneous frontier models, all of which continue to shape market-implied odds around the final 2026 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$6,580Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026, with xAI (now integrated under SpaceX AI) missing successive targets of late 2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026 while the model continues training on the expanded Colossus supercluster. Traders have responded to these repeated slips and the August 2026 confirmation of a year-end goal by shifting focus to an end-of-year resolution window, amid interim releases such as Grok 4.5 and 4.6 that demonstrate ongoing progress on coding and agentic capabilities but do not fulfill the flagship milestone. Key variables include compute scaling timelines, integration of SpaceX engineering data, and competition from contemporaneous frontier models, all of which continue to shape market-implied odds around the final 2026 deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes