Google’s Gemini models currently trail the HLE leaderboard, with Gemini 3.1 Pro and 3.8 Flash variants posting mid-40% scores on recent text-only or tool-augmented evaluations while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead at 59–65%. This gap reflects differences in reasoning depth across expert-level math, physics, and domain-specific questions that resist saturation. Trader sentiment centers on Google’s release cadence, including the August 2026 Gemini 3.7 Flash update and ongoing 3.8 testing, alongside pre-training for Gemini 4 expected later this year. Further gains in agentic scaffolding or reduced hallucination rates could lift Gemini results before year-end, though closing the multi-point deficit to frontier Claude models remains the key swing factor for thresholds above 55%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$85,468 Vol.
31 dic 2026
50% o más
84%
55% o más
37%
60%+
16%
65% o más
12%
70% o más
4%
$85,468 Vol.
50% o más
$29,884 Vol.
84%
55% o más
$31,015 Vol.
37%
60%+
$15,130 Vol.
16%
65% o más
$5,217 Vol.
12%
70% o más
$4,358 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google’s Gemini models currently trail the HLE leaderboard, with Gemini 3.1 Pro and 3.8 Flash variants posting mid-40% scores on recent text-only or tool-augmented evaluations while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead at 59–65%. This gap reflects differences in reasoning depth across expert-level math, physics, and domain-specific questions that resist saturation. Trader sentiment centers on Google’s release cadence, including the August 2026 Gemini 3.7 Flash update and ongoing 3.8 testing, alongside pre-training for Gemini 4 expected later this year. Further gains in agentic scaffolding or reduced hallucination rates could lift Gemini results before year-end, though closing the multi-point deficit to frontier Claude models remains the key swing factor for thresholds above 55%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado abierto: Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
Volumen
$85,468Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google’s Gemini models currently trail the HLE leaderboard, with Gemini 3.1 Pro and 3.8 Flash variants posting mid-40% scores on recent text-only or tool-augmented evaluations while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead at 59–65%. This gap reflects differences in reasoning depth across expert-level math, physics, and domain-specific questions that resist saturation. Trader sentiment centers on Google’s release cadence, including the August 2026 Gemini 3.7 Flash update and ongoing 3.8 testing, alongside pre-training for Gemini 4 expected later this year. Further gains in agentic scaffolding or reduced hallucination rates could lift Gemini results before year-end, though closing the multi-point deficit to frontier Claude models remains the key swing factor for thresholds above 55%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$85,468Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Google’s Gemini models currently trail the HLE leaderboard, with Gemini 3.1 Pro and 3.8 Flash variants posting mid-40% scores on recent text-only or tool-augmented evaluations while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead at 59–65%. This gap reflects differences in reasoning depth across expert-level math, physics, and domain-specific questions that resist saturation. Trader sentiment centers on Google’s release cadence, including the August 2026 Gemini 3.7 Flash update and ongoing 3.8 testing, alongside pre-training for Gemini 4 expected later this year. Further gains in agentic scaffolding or reduced hallucination rates could lift Gemini results before year-end, though closing the multi-point deficit to frontier Claude models remains the key swing factor for thresholds above 55%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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