Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% as of mid-September 2026, outpacing Grok 4.6 at roughly 43% on the expert-authored 2,500-question benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning. xAI’s steady Grok 4.x releases, including recent 4.6–4.7 iterations, have narrowed gaps through larger-scale training and reinforcement learning, yet trail competitors’ advances in reasoning architectures. Elon Musk’s September updates signal Grok 4.8 finishing training imminently and 4.9 targeting parity with top Claude and GPT models, with Grok 5 positioned as a potential leap. Traders monitor xAI’s release cadence, verified no-tools scores, and whether upcoming models can close the 15–20 point deficit before year-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$118,419 Vol.
31 dic 2026
45% o más
78%
50% o más
52%
55% o más
31%
60% o más
19%
65% o más
4%
$118,419 Vol.
45% o más
$44,141 Vol.
78%
50% o más
$24,577 Vol.
52%
55% o más
$29,114 Vol.
31%
60% o más
$17,653 Vol.
19%
65% o más
$2,934 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% as of mid-September 2026, outpacing Grok 4.6 at roughly 43% on the expert-authored 2,500-question benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning. xAI’s steady Grok 4.x releases, including recent 4.6–4.7 iterations, have narrowed gaps through larger-scale training and reinforcement learning, yet trail competitors’ advances in reasoning architectures. Elon Musk’s September updates signal Grok 4.8 finishing training imminently and 4.9 targeting parity with top Claude and GPT models, with Grok 5 positioned as a potential leap. Traders monitor xAI’s release cadence, verified no-tools scores, and whether upcoming models can close the 15–20 point deficit before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado abierto: Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volumen
$118,419Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% as of mid-September 2026, outpacing Grok 4.6 at roughly 43% on the expert-authored 2,500-question benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning. xAI’s steady Grok 4.x releases, including recent 4.6–4.7 iterations, have narrowed gaps through larger-scale training and reinforcement learning, yet trail competitors’ advances in reasoning architectures. Elon Musk’s September updates signal Grok 4.8 finishing training imminently and 4.9 targeting parity with top Claude and GPT models, with Grok 5 positioned as a potential leap. Traders monitor xAI’s release cadence, verified no-tools scores, and whether upcoming models can close the 15–20 point deficit before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$118,419Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65% as of mid-September 2026, outpacing Grok 4.6 at roughly 43% on the expert-authored 2,500-question benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning. xAI’s steady Grok 4.x releases, including recent 4.6–4.7 iterations, have narrowed gaps through larger-scale training and reinforcement learning, yet trail competitors’ advances in reasoning architectures. Elon Musk’s September updates signal Grok 4.8 finishing training imminently and 4.9 targeting parity with top Claude and GPT models, with Grok 5 positioned as a potential leap. Traders monitor xAI’s release cadence, verified no-tools scores, and whether upcoming models can close the 15–20 point deficit before year-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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