Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 drove recent trader positioning on the Polymarket, with the model posting 46.9–56% on Humanity’s Last Exam depending on tool use and leaderboard protocol. This placed it competitively behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (59–65%) but ahead of most other open-weight entries. Subsequent Kimi iterations have shown incremental gains on agentic and reasoning subsets, yet the gap to closed frontier models persists amid rapid releases from OpenAI and Google. Traders are watching for any late-2026 Kimi updates or agent enhancements that could close the remaining distance before the December 31 resolution deadline, while noting that benchmark scores remain sensitive to exact evaluation conditions like tool access and reasoning effort.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$62,779 Vol.
31 dic 2026
45%+
85%
50%+
39%
55%+
19%
60% o más
11%
65% o más
7%
$62,779 Vol.
45%+
$15,385 Vol.
85%
50%+
$24,025 Vol.
39%
55%+
$11,805 Vol.
19%
60% o más
$9,733 Vol.
11%
65% o más
$1,832 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 drove recent trader positioning on the Polymarket, with the model posting 46.9–56% on Humanity’s Last Exam depending on tool use and leaderboard protocol. This placed it competitively behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (59–65%) but ahead of most other open-weight entries. Subsequent Kimi iterations have shown incremental gains on agentic and reasoning subsets, yet the gap to closed frontier models persists amid rapid releases from OpenAI and Google. Traders are watching for any late-2026 Kimi updates or agent enhancements that could close the remaining distance before the December 31 resolution deadline, while noting that benchmark scores remain sensitive to exact evaluation conditions like tool access and reasoning effort.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado abierto: Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$62,779Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 drove recent trader positioning on the Polymarket, with the model posting 46.9–56% on Humanity’s Last Exam depending on tool use and leaderboard protocol. This placed it competitively behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (59–65%) but ahead of most other open-weight entries. Subsequent Kimi iterations have shown incremental gains on agentic and reasoning subsets, yet the gap to closed frontier models persists amid rapid releases from OpenAI and Google. Traders are watching for any late-2026 Kimi updates or agent enhancements that could close the remaining distance before the December 31 resolution deadline, while noting that benchmark scores remain sensitive to exact evaluation conditions like tool access and reasoning effort.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$62,779Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 drove recent trader positioning on the Polymarket, with the model posting 46.9–56% on Humanity’s Last Exam depending on tool use and leaderboard protocol. This placed it competitively behind Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (59–65%) but ahead of most other open-weight entries. Subsequent Kimi iterations have shown incremental gains on agentic and reasoning subsets, yet the gap to closed frontier models persists amid rapid releases from OpenAI and Google. Traders are watching for any late-2026 Kimi updates or agent enhancements that could close the remaining distance before the December 31 resolution deadline, while noting that benchmark scores remain sensitive to exact evaluation conditions like tool access and reasoning effort.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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