Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island and the surrounding Strait of Hormuz through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, coastal defenses, and a network of seven strategic islands that form a defensive line for monitoring and regulating maritime traffic. As of September 2026, Iranian officials continue to assert sole administrative authority over the waterway, rejecting alternative routes and demanding recognition from Oman and other littoral states via ongoing talks tied to a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum. Recent ship attacks and Iranian warnings against non-compliant vessels in the strait underscore Tehran's enforcement efforts amid a broader US naval blockade and intermittent strikes. No verified military actions have altered Iranian sovereignty over the island itself, though sustained regional escalation or successful external intervention could introduce uncertainty within the market's resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La isla de Ormuz ya no está bajo control iraní por...?
¿La isla de Ormuz ya no está bajo control iraní por...?
$71,211 Vol.
30 sep 2026
30 de septiembre
1%
$71,211 Vol.
30 de septiembre
$933 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island and the surrounding Strait of Hormuz through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, coastal defenses, and a network of seven strategic islands that form a defensive line for monitoring and regulating maritime traffic. As of September 2026, Iranian officials continue to assert sole administrative authority over the waterway, rejecting alternative routes and demanding recognition from Oman and other littoral states via ongoing talks tied to a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum. Recent ship attacks and Iranian warnings against non-compliant vessels in the strait underscore Tehran's enforcement efforts amid a broader US naval blockade and intermittent strikes. No verified military actions have altered Iranian sovereignty over the island itself, though sustained regional escalation or successful external intervention could introduce uncertainty within the market's resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
Volumen
$71,211Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island and the surrounding Strait of Hormuz through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, coastal defenses, and a network of seven strategic islands that form a defensive line for monitoring and regulating maritime traffic. As of September 2026, Iranian officials continue to assert sole administrative authority over the waterway, rejecting alternative routes and demanding recognition from Oman and other littoral states via ongoing talks tied to a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum. Recent ship attacks and Iranian warnings against non-compliant vessels in the strait underscore Tehran's enforcement efforts amid a broader US naval blockade and intermittent strikes. No verified military actions have altered Iranian sovereignty over the island itself, though sustained regional escalation or successful external intervention could introduce uncertainty within the market's resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$71,211Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island and the surrounding Strait of Hormuz through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, coastal defenses, and a network of seven strategic islands that form a defensive line for monitoring and regulating maritime traffic. As of September 2026, Iranian officials continue to assert sole administrative authority over the waterway, rejecting alternative routes and demanding recognition from Oman and other littoral states via ongoing talks tied to a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum. Recent ship attacks and Iranian warnings against non-compliant vessels in the strait underscore Tehran's enforcement efforts amid a broader US naval blockade and intermittent strikes. No verified military actions have altered Iranian sovereignty over the island itself, though sustained regional escalation or successful external intervention could introduce uncertainty within the market's resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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