Iran maintains firm sovereignty over Hormuz Island through IRGC naval and coastal defense assets that form part of its layered control of the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges, including recent strikes on Iranian vessels and attempts to seize drones near the strait in mid-September 2026, have targeted Iranian capabilities on nearby islands such as Greater Tunb and Larak but have not altered control of Hormuz itself. Tehran continues to assert administrative and security authority over shipping routes, while US operations focus on degrading missile, radar, and mine-laying threats rather than territorial occupation. No diplomatic or military developments in the past 30 days indicate an imminent shift in the island’s status, though sustained escalation or new agreements on maritime administration could influence longer-term outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La isla de Ormuz ya no está bajo control iraní por...?
¿La isla de Ormuz ya no está bajo control iraní por...?
$71,135 Vol.
30 sep 2026
30 de septiembre
3%
$71,135 Vol.
30 de septiembre
$858 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm sovereignty over Hormuz Island through IRGC naval and coastal defense assets that form part of its layered control of the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges, including recent strikes on Iranian vessels and attempts to seize drones near the strait in mid-September 2026, have targeted Iranian capabilities on nearby islands such as Greater Tunb and Larak but have not altered control of Hormuz itself. Tehran continues to assert administrative and security authority over shipping routes, while US operations focus on degrading missile, radar, and mine-laying threats rather than territorial occupation. No diplomatic or military developments in the past 30 days indicate an imminent shift in the island’s status, though sustained escalation or new agreements on maritime administration could influence longer-term outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
Volumen
$71,135Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm sovereignty over Hormuz Island through IRGC naval and coastal defense assets that form part of its layered control of the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges, including recent strikes on Iranian vessels and attempts to seize drones near the strait in mid-September 2026, have targeted Iranian capabilities on nearby islands such as Greater Tunb and Larak but have not altered control of Hormuz itself. Tehran continues to assert administrative and security authority over shipping routes, while US operations focus on degrading missile, radar, and mine-laying threats rather than territorial occupation. No diplomatic or military developments in the past 30 days indicate an imminent shift in the island’s status, though sustained escalation or new agreements on maritime administration could influence longer-term outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$71,135Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains firm sovereignty over Hormuz Island through IRGC naval and coastal defense assets that form part of its layered control of the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges, including recent strikes on Iranian vessels and attempts to seize drones near the strait in mid-September 2026, have targeted Iranian capabilities on nearby islands such as Greater Tunb and Larak but have not altered control of Hormuz itself. Tehran continues to assert administrative and security authority over shipping routes, while US operations focus on degrading missile, radar, and mine-laying threats rather than territorial occupation. No diplomatic or military developments in the past 30 days indicate an imminent shift in the island’s status, though sustained escalation or new agreements on maritime administration could influence longer-term outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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