Persistent El Niño conditions, which have strengthened through the peak months, are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region and suppressing tropical cyclone intensification, positioning 0–3 hurricanes as the dominant market outcomes. As of mid-September 2026, five short-lived named storms have formed with zero reaching hurricane strength—a record-late start in the satellite era—while NOAA’s August update maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal season with 2–6 hurricanes expected overall. Official NHC outlooks show only low-probability disturbances in the subtropical Atlantic, and historical analogs under comparable El Niño phases align with limited late-season development before the November 30 close.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos huracanes se formarán durante la temporada de huracanes del Atlántico en 2026?
¿Cuántos huracanes se formarán durante la temporada de huracanes del Atlántico en 2026?
1-3 63%
0 35%
4-6 3.5%
7+ <1%
$31,080 Vol.
$31,080 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
35%
1-3
63%
4-6
3%
7+
<1%
1-3 63%
0 35%
4-6 3.5%
7+ <1%
$31,080 Vol.
$31,080 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
$16,790 Vol.
35%
1-3
$5,372 Vol.
63%
4-6
$6,694 Vol.
3%
7+
$2,224 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Persistent El Niño conditions, which have strengthened through the peak months, are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region and suppressing tropical cyclone intensification, positioning 0–3 hurricanes as the dominant market outcomes. As of mid-September 2026, five short-lived named storms have formed with zero reaching hurricane strength—a record-late start in the satellite era—while NOAA’s August update maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal season with 2–6 hurricanes expected overall. Official NHC outlooks show only low-probability disturbances in the subtropical Atlantic, and historical analogs under comparable El Niño phases align with limited late-season development before the November 30 close.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Mercado abierto: Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Volumen
$31,080Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Persistent El Niño conditions, which have strengthened through the peak months, are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region and suppressing tropical cyclone intensification, positioning 0–3 hurricanes as the dominant market outcomes. As of mid-September 2026, five short-lived named storms have formed with zero reaching hurricane strength—a record-late start in the satellite era—while NOAA’s August update maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal season with 2–6 hurricanes expected overall. Official NHC outlooks show only low-probability disturbances in the subtropical Atlantic, and historical analogs under comparable El Niño phases align with limited late-season development before the November 30 close.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Volumen
$31,080Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent El Niño conditions, which have strengthened through the peak months, are driving elevated vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region and suppressing tropical cyclone intensification, positioning 0–3 hurricanes as the dominant market outcomes. As of mid-September 2026, five short-lived named storms have formed with zero reaching hurricane strength—a record-late start in the satellite era—while NOAA’s August update maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal season with 2–6 hurricanes expected overall. Official NHC outlooks show only low-probability disturbances in the subtropical Atlantic, and historical analogs under comparable El Niño phases align with limited late-season development before the November 30 close.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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