Imran Khan remains incarcerated in Pakistan’s Adiala Jail since August 2023, serving multiple sentences including a 14-year term on corruption convictions that he and PTI maintain are politically motivated. Appeals in key cases continue without resolution, while the government and military establishment treat his continued detention as tied to national security and political stability calculations. Recent court orders have addressed prison conditions—such as ending solitary confinement and improving medical access—but have not produced release or bail. Speculation around medical transfers or negotiations has repeatedly failed to materialize into freedom, as Khan rejects any arrangement requiring political concessions. With only months until the December 31, 2026 cutoff and no scheduled events or institutional shifts indicating imminent relief, traders assign high probability to continued imprisonment.