Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured the nomination in the May 2026 primary and enters the general election with a substantial edge in Indiana’s 4th congressional district, which carries a strong Republican lean reflected in prior election margins exceeding 30 points. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s voting patterns and Baird’s established position since 2019. Democratic nominee Drew Cox advanced from his primary but trails significantly in fundraising and lacks visible momentum. Trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, incumbent health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the gap, though the district’s baseline makes such shifts improbable without major catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes IN-04
Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes IN-04
$10,237 Vol.
$10,237 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
93%
Partido Demócrata
7%
$10,237 Vol.
$10,237 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$7,932 Vol.
93%
Partido Demócrata
$2,305 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured the nomination in the May 2026 primary and enters the general election with a substantial edge in Indiana’s 4th congressional district, which carries a strong Republican lean reflected in prior election margins exceeding 30 points. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s voting patterns and Baird’s established position since 2019. Democratic nominee Drew Cox advanced from his primary but trails significantly in fundraising and lacks visible momentum. Trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, incumbent health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the gap, though the district’s baseline makes such shifts improbable without major catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$10,237Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured the nomination in the May 2026 primary and enters the general election with a substantial edge in Indiana’s 4th congressional district, which carries a strong Republican lean reflected in prior election margins exceeding 30 points. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s voting patterns and Baird’s established position since 2019. Democratic nominee Drew Cox advanced from his primary but trails significantly in fundraising and lacks visible momentum. Trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, incumbent health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the gap, though the district’s baseline makes such shifts improbable without major catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$10,237Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured the nomination in the May 2026 primary and enters the general election with a substantial edge in Indiana’s 4th congressional district, which carries a strong Republican lean reflected in prior election margins exceeding 30 points. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s voting patterns and Baird’s established position since 2019. Democratic nominee Drew Cox advanced from his primary but trails significantly in fundraising and lacks visible momentum. Trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, incumbent health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the gap, though the district’s baseline makes such shifts improbable without major catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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