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Mundo·Oriente Medio

¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?

icon for ¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?
Mundo·Oriente Medio

¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 82.5%

Sin Jefe de Estado 4.3%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Alireza Arafi 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,639,475 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 82.5%

Sin Jefe de Estado 4.3%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Alireza Arafi 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,639,475 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$6,044,093 Vol.

83%

Sin Jefe de Estado

$1,148,676 Vol.

4%

Reza Pahlavi

$672,396 Vol.

3%

Alireza Arafi

$2,311,688 Vol.

2%

Mahmoud Ahmadineyad

$1,120,634 Vol.

2%

Hassan Rouhani

$944,728 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$776,835 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,425,383 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,020,011 Vol.

1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$918,080 Vol.

1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$437,595 Vol.

<1%

Abbas Araghchi

$833,512 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$535,501 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,143,945 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$804,789 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$397,209 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,694,534 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$145,393 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$211,365 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$199,186 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$836,226 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$433,350 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,346,965 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$239,231 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$384,741 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,192,090 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$281,762 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$254,575 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$306,671 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$341,451 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming lead in trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 due to his rapid installation as Supreme Leader following the February 28, 2026, assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, amid the 2026 Iran war involving U.S.-Israeli strikes. The Assembly of Experts selected him unanimously in early March 2026, establishing continuity through his established networks in the Office of the Supreme Leader and ties to the IRGC. This swift transition has stabilized the position amid ongoing regional tensions, with no major subsequent challenges or alternative succession moves reported. Low probabilities for other listed figures, including reformist or opposition names, reflect the absence of viable near-term contenders under current institutional and security dynamics, as the regime prioritizes internal cohesion through the remainder of the year.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$38,639,475
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming lead in trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 due to his rapid installation as Supreme Leader following the February 28, 2026, assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, amid the 2026 Iran war involving U.S.-Israeli strikes. The Assembly of Experts selected him unanimously in early March 2026, establishing continuity through his established networks in the Office of the Supreme Leader and ties to the IRGC. This swift transition has stabilized the position amid ongoing regional tensions, with no major subsequent challenges or alternative succession moves reported. Low probabilities for other listed figures, including reformist or opposition names, reflect the absence of viable near-term contenders under current institutional and security dynamics, as the regime prioritizes internal cohesion through the remainder of the year.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$38,639,475
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 32 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Mojtaba Khamenei" con 83%, seguido de "Sin Jefe de Estado" con 4%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 83¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 83% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" ha generado $38.6 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 28, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?", explora los 32 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" es "Mojtaba Khamenei" con 83%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 83% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Sin Jefe de Estado" con 4%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.