Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated in late February 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli military strikes during the 2026 Iran war, triggering activation of Article 111 of the constitution and an interim three-member leadership council. The Assembly of Experts then elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader in early March 2026 via a near-unanimous vote. As of August 2026, trader pricing on timing of any further leadership change reflects ongoing wartime pressures, IRGC influence, economic strain, and internal factional dynamics that could prompt additional transitions. The Assembly of Experts retains constitutional authority over succession, while external military developments, domestic protests, or elite defections remain key variables that could accelerate or delay outcomes within resolution windows.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$23,483,204 Vol.
15 ago 2026
15 de agosto
<1%
22 de agosto
1%
31 de agosto
2%
30 de septiembre
6%
31 de octubre
10%
30 de noviembre
12%
31 de diciembre
18%
30 de junio de 2027
27%
$23,483,204 Vol.
15 de agosto
$60,914 Vol.
<1%
22 de agosto
$31,948 Vol.
1%
31 de agosto
$1,148,876 Vol.
2%
30 de septiembre
$440,909 Vol.
6%
31 de octubre
$8,802 Vol.
10%
30 de noviembre
$10,250 Vol.
12%
31 de diciembre
$3,997,796 Vol.
18%
30 de junio de 2027
$237,332 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated in late February 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli military strikes during the 2026 Iran war, triggering activation of Article 111 of the constitution and an interim three-member leadership council. The Assembly of Experts then elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader in early March 2026 via a near-unanimous vote. As of August 2026, trader pricing on timing of any further leadership change reflects ongoing wartime pressures, IRGC influence, economic strain, and internal factional dynamics that could prompt additional transitions. The Assembly of Experts retains constitutional authority over succession, while external military developments, domestic protests, or elite defections remain key variables that could accelerate or delay outcomes within resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volumen
$23,483,204Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated in late February 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli military strikes during the 2026 Iran war, triggering activation of Article 111 of the constitution and an interim three-member leadership council. The Assembly of Experts then elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader in early March 2026 via a near-unanimous vote. As of August 2026, trader pricing on timing of any further leadership change reflects ongoing wartime pressures, IRGC influence, economic strain, and internal factional dynamics that could prompt additional transitions. The Assembly of Experts retains constitutional authority over succession, while external military developments, domestic protests, or elite defections remain key variables that could accelerate or delay outcomes within resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$23,483,204Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated in late February 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli military strikes during the 2026 Iran war, triggering activation of Article 111 of the constitution and an interim three-member leadership council. The Assembly of Experts then elected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader in early March 2026 via a near-unanimous vote. As of August 2026, trader pricing on timing of any further leadership change reflects ongoing wartime pressures, IRGC influence, economic strain, and internal factional dynamics that could prompt additional transitions. The Assembly of Experts retains constitutional authority over succession, while external military developments, domestic protests, or elite defections remain key variables that could accelerate or delay outcomes within resolution windows.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes