The US-Israeli military campaign that culminated in the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei triggered an expedited succession process, resulting in the selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei by the Assembly of Experts. Authority has since consolidated among hardline figures in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, with Mojtaba issuing only written statements and remaining absent from public negotiations. The presidency and core clerical institutions persist, but overlapping military and security portfolios have reduced the singular influence once held by the supreme leader's office. These wartime shifts, combined with ongoing diplomatic pressures and internal cohesion questions, form the primary drivers behind trader assessments of further leadership adjustments by key resolution dates.