Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities, burying much of its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent and disrupting centrifuge operations. IAEA inspectors withdrew following the attacks, and subsequent reporting indicates no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities amid ongoing negotiations and a spring 2026 ceasefire. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, these physical and verification constraints create substantial barriers to conducting a nuclear test. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent reflects this degraded capacity, though a rapid covert recovery effort or sudden doctrinal shift could still alter the timeline before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
Sí
5% probabilidad
$246,408 Vol.
$246,408 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
5% probabilidad
$246,408 Vol.
$246,408 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities, burying much of its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent and disrupting centrifuge operations. IAEA inspectors withdrew following the attacks, and subsequent reporting indicates no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities amid ongoing negotiations and a spring 2026 ceasefire. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, these physical and verification constraints create substantial barriers to conducting a nuclear test. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent reflects this degraded capacity, though a rapid covert recovery effort or sudden doctrinal shift could still alter the timeline before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$246,408Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities, burying much of its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent and disrupting centrifuge operations. IAEA inspectors withdrew following the attacks, and subsequent reporting indicates no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities amid ongoing negotiations and a spring 2026 ceasefire. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, these physical and verification constraints create substantial barriers to conducting a nuclear test. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent reflects this degraded capacity, though a rapid covert recovery effort or sudden doctrinal shift could still alter the timeline before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$246,408Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities, burying much of its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent and disrupting centrifuge operations. IAEA inspectors withdrew following the attacks, and subsequent reporting indicates no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities amid ongoing negotiations and a spring 2026 ceasefire. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, these physical and verification constraints create substantial barriers to conducting a nuclear test. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent reflects this degraded capacity, though a rapid covert recovery effort or sudden doctrinal shift could still alter the timeline before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes