Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election places Likud in a narrow 21-24 seat band, with surveys from Midgam, Kantar, and Lazar showing 22-24 seats amid competition from Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and other opposition lists. Declines from Likud's prior 32 seats stem from voter shifts on security handling and coalition performance, while the party's recent primary produced a consolidated slate under Netanyahu but at reduced turnout. These factors sustain tight trader probabilities across the 20-29 seat outcomes, with separation likely to emerge from late-campaign developments in bloc negotiations, turnout among right-wing voters, or shifts in security conditions before election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIsrael Election: Likud # of seats?
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
20-24 33%
25-29 29%
<20 18.0%
30-34 18%
$102,395 Vol.
$102,395 Vol.
26 oct 2026
<20
18%
20-24
33%
25-29
29%
30-34
18%
35+
5%
20-24 33%
25-29 29%
<20 18.0%
30-34 18%
$102,395 Vol.
$102,395 Vol.
26 oct 2026
<20
$33,123 Vol.
18%
20-24
$15,595 Vol.
33%
25-29
$24,708 Vol.
29%
30-34
$19,721 Vol.
18%
35+
$9,249 Vol.
5%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election places Likud in a narrow 21-24 seat band, with surveys from Midgam, Kantar, and Lazar showing 22-24 seats amid competition from Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and other opposition lists. Declines from Likud's prior 32 seats stem from voter shifts on security handling and coalition performance, while the party's recent primary produced a consolidated slate under Netanyahu but at reduced turnout. These factors sustain tight trader probabilities across the 20-29 seat outcomes, with separation likely to emerge from late-campaign developments in bloc negotiations, turnout among right-wing voters, or shifts in security conditions before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volumen
$102,395Fecha de finalización
27 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election places Likud in a narrow 21-24 seat band, with surveys from Midgam, Kantar, and Lazar showing 22-24 seats amid competition from Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and other opposition lists. Declines from Likud's prior 32 seats stem from voter shifts on security handling and coalition performance, while the party's recent primary produced a consolidated slate under Netanyahu but at reduced turnout. These factors sustain tight trader probabilities across the 20-29 seat outcomes, with separation likely to emerge from late-campaign developments in bloc negotiations, turnout among right-wing voters, or shifts in security conditions before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volumen
$102,395Fecha de finalización
27 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election places Likud in a narrow 21-24 seat band, with surveys from Midgam, Kantar, and Lazar showing 22-24 seats amid competition from Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and other opposition lists. Declines from Likud's prior 32 seats stem from voter shifts on security handling and coalition performance, while the party's recent primary produced a consolidated slate under Netanyahu but at reduced turnout. These factors sustain tight trader probabilities across the 20-29 seat outcomes, with separation likely to emerge from late-campaign developments in bloc negotiations, turnout among right-wing voters, or shifts in security conditions before election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes