Polls conducted in late September and early October 2026 place Likud at an average of roughly 22 seats, with results ranging from 18 to 32 depending on the survey, consistent with the market's emphasis on the 20-24 band. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-religious bloc, including Likud plus partners such as Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism–Zehut, averages near 51 seats, short of the 61-seat Knesset majority. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party frequently leads or ties Likud, while opposition Zionist parties and Arab lists fragment the remaining mandates. With the October 27 election three weeks away, persistent polling volatility, threshold dynamics for smaller parties, and bloc arithmetic continue to anchor trader expectations around these ranges.