Recent polling for Israel's October 27 election places Ra'am's projected vote share near the 3.25% threshold, with most surveys showing 4 seats or roughly 3.3–4.2%. Trader positioning around the 4–4.75% band reflects this narrow range amid high uncertainty. Key factors include Ra'am's technical bloc with Jewish candidate Yoav Segalovitz, its shift toward a broader civic platform after separating from the Southern Islamic Movement, and a recent surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List. Disqualification requests and competition for Arab votes add volatility, while overall Arab-party totals in aggregates hover near 10–12 seats. Late shifts in turnout or list approvals could consolidate support for outcomes above or below the current leader.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4-4,75% 33%
3,25-4% 25%
<3,25% 19%
5,5%+ 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 nov 2026
<3,25%
18%
3,25-4%
20%
4-4,75%
33%
4,75-5,5%
39%
5,5%+
5%
4-4,75% 33%
3,25-4% 25%
<3,25% 19%
5,5%+ 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 nov 2026
<3,25%
$294 Vol.
18%
3,25-4%
$278 Vol.
20%
4-4,75%
$1,053 Vol.
33%
4,75-5,5%
$192 Vol.
39%
5,5%+
$175 Vol.
5%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27 election places Ra'am's projected vote share near the 3.25% threshold, with most surveys showing 4 seats or roughly 3.3–4.2%. Trader positioning around the 4–4.75% band reflects this narrow range amid high uncertainty. Key factors include Ra'am's technical bloc with Jewish candidate Yoav Segalovitz, its shift toward a broader civic platform after separating from the Southern Islamic Movement, and a recent surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List. Disqualification requests and competition for Arab votes add volatility, while overall Arab-party totals in aggregates hover near 10–12 seats. Late shifts in turnout or list approvals could consolidate support for outcomes above or below the current leader.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ET
Volumen
$1,993Fecha de finalización
27 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27 election places Ra'am's projected vote share near the 3.25% threshold, with most surveys showing 4 seats or roughly 3.3–4.2%. Trader positioning around the 4–4.75% band reflects this narrow range amid high uncertainty. Key factors include Ra'am's technical bloc with Jewish candidate Yoav Segalovitz, its shift toward a broader civic platform after separating from the Southern Islamic Movement, and a recent surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List. Disqualification requests and competition for Arab votes add volatility, while overall Arab-party totals in aggregates hover near 10–12 seats. Late shifts in turnout or list approvals could consolidate support for outcomes above or below the current leader.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volumen
$1,993Fecha de finalización
27 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Israel's October 27 election places Ra'am's projected vote share near the 3.25% threshold, with most surveys showing 4 seats or roughly 3.3–4.2%. Trader positioning around the 4–4.75% band reflects this narrow range amid high uncertainty. Key factors include Ra'am's technical bloc with Jewish candidate Yoav Segalovitz, its shift toward a broader civic platform after separating from the Southern Islamic Movement, and a recent surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List. Disqualification requests and competition for Arab votes add volatility, while overall Arab-party totals in aggregates hover near 10–12 seats. Late shifts in turnout or list approvals could consolidate support for outcomes above or below the current leader.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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