Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows Likud projected at 21–24 seats, down from its 32 seats in 2022, amid consistent leads or near-parity for opposition blocs. Primary drivers include sustained voter fatigue following the October 2023 Hamas attack and prolonged security operations, internal coalition strains over Haredi draft exemptions, and Likud's own primary disputes over Netanyahu's influence on the candidate list. Newer parties such as Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar have gained ground in multiple surveys from outlets including Channel 13 and Maariv, reflecting shifts in right-leaning and centrist support. These trends underpin trader consensus on seat losses for Likud as the election approaches.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado86% probabilidad
$11,046 Vol.
$11,046 Vol.
27 oct 2026
86% probabilidad
$11,046 Vol.
$11,046 Vol.
27 oct 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows Likud projected at 21–24 seats, down from its 32 seats in 2022, amid consistent leads or near-parity for opposition blocs. Primary drivers include sustained voter fatigue following the October 2023 Hamas attack and prolonged security operations, internal coalition strains over Haredi draft exemptions, and Likud's own primary disputes over Netanyahu's influence on the candidate list. Newer parties such as Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar have gained ground in multiple surveys from outlets including Channel 13 and Maariv, reflecting shifts in right-leaning and centrist support. These trends underpin trader consensus on seat losses for Likud as the election approaches.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volumen
$11,046Fecha de finalización
27 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows Likud projected at 21–24 seats, down from its 32 seats in 2022, amid consistent leads or near-parity for opposition blocs. Primary drivers include sustained voter fatigue following the October 2023 Hamas attack and prolonged security operations, internal coalition strains over Haredi draft exemptions, and Likud's own primary disputes over Netanyahu's influence on the candidate list. Newer parties such as Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar have gained ground in multiple surveys from outlets including Channel 13 and Maariv, reflecting shifts in right-leaning and centrist support. These trends underpin trader consensus on seat losses for Likud as the election approaches.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volumen
$11,046Fecha de finalización
27 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows Likud projected at 21–24 seats, down from its 32 seats in 2022, amid consistent leads or near-parity for opposition blocs. Primary drivers include sustained voter fatigue following the October 2023 Hamas attack and prolonged security operations, internal coalition strains over Haredi draft exemptions, and Likud's own primary disputes over Netanyahu's influence on the candidate list. Newer parties such as Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar have gained ground in multiple surveys from outlets including Channel 13 and Maariv, reflecting shifts in right-leaning and centrist support. These trends underpin trader consensus on seat losses for Likud as the election approaches.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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