Recent Israeli polls ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 21–24 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36). Multiple surveys, including those from Maariv, Kan, and Channel 13, show the Netanyahu-led bloc trailing opposition groupings, with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party often matching or exceeding Likud while broader opposition alliances reach or approach a majority. Contributing factors include the lingering effects of the October 2023 security failures, coalition strains over judicial measures and military conduct, internal Likud disputes over primaries and candidate selection, and competition from centrist and right-leaning challengers. These trends have produced a consistent polling gap that underpins trader assessments of seat losses for Likud.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado86% probabilidad
$11,046 Vol.
$11,046 Vol.
27 oct 2026
86% probabilidad
$11,046 Vol.
$11,046 Vol.
27 oct 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent Israeli polls ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 21–24 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36). Multiple surveys, including those from Maariv, Kan, and Channel 13, show the Netanyahu-led bloc trailing opposition groupings, with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party often matching or exceeding Likud while broader opposition alliances reach or approach a majority. Contributing factors include the lingering effects of the October 2023 security failures, coalition strains over judicial measures and military conduct, internal Likud disputes over primaries and candidate selection, and competition from centrist and right-leaning challengers. These trends have produced a consistent polling gap that underpins trader assessments of seat losses for Likud.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volumen
$11,046Fecha de finalización
27 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent Israeli polls ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 21–24 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36). Multiple surveys, including those from Maariv, Kan, and Channel 13, show the Netanyahu-led bloc trailing opposition groupings, with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party often matching or exceeding Likud while broader opposition alliances reach or approach a majority. Contributing factors include the lingering effects of the October 2023 security failures, coalition strains over judicial measures and military conduct, internal Likud disputes over primaries and candidate selection, and competition from centrist and right-leaning challengers. These trends have produced a consistent polling gap that underpins trader assessments of seat losses for Likud.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volumen
$11,046Fecha de finalización
27 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Israeli polls ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 21–24 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36). Multiple surveys, including those from Maariv, Kan, and Channel 13, show the Netanyahu-led bloc trailing opposition groupings, with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party often matching or exceeding Likud while broader opposition alliances reach or approach a majority. Contributing factors include the lingering effects of the October 2023 security failures, coalition strains over judicial measures and military conduct, internal Likud disputes over primaries and candidate selection, and competition from centrist and right-leaning challengers. These trends have produced a consistent polling gap that underpins trader assessments of seat losses for Likud.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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