Israeli and U.S. forces have conducted extensive airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, missile production sites, and military infrastructure since late February 2026, followed by a fragile ceasefire in early April. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran has restored much of its underground missile infrastructure and retained a significant portion of its prewar capabilities, prompting Israeli leaders to maintain high alert and state that the conflict remains unresolved. Ongoing diplomatic talks over sanctions relief, guarantees against future aggression, and control of the Strait of Hormuz continue without agreement, while reports of potential Israeli special forces activity inside Iran remain unconfirmed. Any verified ground operation would likely hinge on renewed escalation, Israeli assessments of nuclear reconstitution, or breakdown in mediation efforts within the coming weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La operación terrestre de Israel en Irán confirmada por...?
$1,212,811 Vol.
31 de mayo
7%
$1,212,811 Vol.
31 de mayo
7%
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 1:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli and U.S. forces have conducted extensive airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, missile production sites, and military infrastructure since late February 2026, followed by a fragile ceasefire in early April. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran has restored much of its underground missile infrastructure and retained a significant portion of its prewar capabilities, prompting Israeli leaders to maintain high alert and state that the conflict remains unresolved. Ongoing diplomatic talks over sanctions relief, guarantees against future aggression, and control of the Strait of Hormuz continue without agreement, while reports of potential Israeli special forces activity inside Iran remain unconfirmed. Any verified ground operation would likely hinge on renewed escalation, Israeli assessments of nuclear reconstitution, or breakdown in mediation efforts within the coming weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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