Recent Israeli strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon have prompted Iran to restrict navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and report tanker incidents, directly threatening the fragile ceasefire framework reached earlier in 2026. Israeli caretaker Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly emphasized the need to eliminate the Iranian threat once and for all, while security officials prepare contingency plans for renewed operations. Diplomatic mediation by Qatar and Pakistan continues on issues including sanctions relief, asset releases, and nuclear limits, yet progress remains stalled by disagreements over enrichment and Lebanon's status. Iranian missile production capacity and regional proxy activity add further uncertainty, with traders monitoring any escalation around upcoming Israeli government formation or U.S. policy shifts.