**Flávio Bolsonaro’s strong first-round performance and explicit pledge to grant his father an indulto or support congressional amnesty have anchored trader expectations for a pardon well before the March 2027 deadline.** Recent legislative elections produced a conservative majority in Congress, including a large PL bloc, increasing the prospects for an amnesty bill covering Jair Bolsonaro’s 27-year coup-plotting conviction and related January 8 cases. A Supreme Court justice appointed by the former president has signaled plans to advance a criminal-review petition shortly after the October 25 runoff, potentially via injunction or plenary vote. If Flávio prevails on October 25 and takes office in January 2027, he could issue a decree on or near inauguration day, with procedural steps likely completed inside the resolution window. These converging political and institutional pathways underpin the 83.5% implied probability for a pardon by the cutoff.