Traders assign a 97.8% implied probability that former FBI Director James Comey will not receive a prison sentence in 2026, reflecting broad consensus that pending charges are unlikely to produce a conviction and sentencing this year. The case stems from a 2026 federal indictment in North Carolina on two threat-related counts tied to a 2025 Instagram post depicting seashells arranged as “86 47,” each carrying a maximum 10-year penalty. Comey has pleaded not guilty, remains free on recognizance, and faces trial beginning October 21, 2026. Defense motions emphasize First Amendment protections, selective prosecution concerns, and procedural challenges, building on the earlier dismissal of separate 2025 charges. With limited time remaining after trial for any verdict, sentencing, or appeals, and given the contested nature of the evidence, market pricing incorporates the significant procedural and legal barriers that historically limit swift resolution in such matters. Late developments such as a plea agreement or accelerated proceedings could still alter the outcome before December 31.