The Department of Justice's April 2026 decision to drop its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on headquarters renovations eliminated the only credible legal exposure, driving the 98% market-implied probability that he will not serve jail time before 2027. No charges were filed, courts quashed related subpoenas citing insufficient evidence, and subsequent months have brought no new probes or indictments tied to monetary policy disputes or renovation costs. Institutional norms protecting central bank independence, combined with Powell's clean record and the absence of ongoing regulatory or congressional actions, reinforce trader consensus reflected in real-capital bets. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to extreme, low-probability political retaliation or fabricated claims, though such developments would face significant evidentiary and procedural hurdles before resolution.