Jerome Powell faces no active criminal investigations, indictments, or credible legal proceedings that would support incarceration before 2027, underpinning the market's 98.2% implied probability for "No." As Federal Reserve Chair through mid-2026, his role involves monetary policy decisions tied to inflation data, labor market indicators, and FOMC communications, none of which have triggered enforcement actions from regulators or prosecutors. Institutional norms and historical precedent further reinforce trader consensus, as no prior Fed leader has been jailed. Tail-risk scenarios remain remote and would require unprecedented political intervention, such as targeted prosecutions absent due process, which current governance structures and separation of powers make highly improbable in the remaining months of 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
2% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
2% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Jerome Powell faces no active criminal investigations, indictments, or credible legal proceedings that would support incarceration before 2027, underpinning the market's 98.2% implied probability for "No." As Federal Reserve Chair through mid-2026, his role involves monetary policy decisions tied to inflation data, labor market indicators, and FOMC communications, none of which have triggered enforcement actions from regulators or prosecutors. Institutional norms and historical precedent further reinforce trader consensus, as no prior Fed leader has been jailed. Tail-risk scenarios remain remote and would require unprecedented political intervention, such as targeted prosecutions absent due process, which current governance structures and separation of powers make highly improbable in the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Volumen
$5,637Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Jerome Powell faces no active criminal investigations, indictments, or credible legal proceedings that would support incarceration before 2027, underpinning the market's 98.2% implied probability for "No." As Federal Reserve Chair through mid-2026, his role involves monetary policy decisions tied to inflation data, labor market indicators, and FOMC communications, none of which have triggered enforcement actions from regulators or prosecutors. Institutional norms and historical precedent further reinforce trader consensus, as no prior Fed leader has been jailed. Tail-risk scenarios remain remote and would require unprecedented political intervention, such as targeted prosecutions absent due process, which current governance structures and separation of powers make highly improbable in the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$5,637Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Jerome Powell faces no active criminal investigations, indictments, or credible legal proceedings that would support incarceration before 2027, underpinning the market's 98.2% implied probability for "No." As Federal Reserve Chair through mid-2026, his role involves monetary policy decisions tied to inflation data, labor market indicators, and FOMC communications, none of which have triggered enforcement actions from regulators or prosecutors. Institutional norms and historical precedent further reinforce trader consensus, as no prior Fed leader has been jailed. Tail-risk scenarios remain remote and would require unprecedented political intervention, such as targeted prosecutions absent due process, which current governance structures and separation of powers make highly improbable in the remaining months of 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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