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Elecciones·Oriente Medio

Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano

icon for Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano
Elecciones·Oriente Medio

Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano

Movimiento Amal (Amal) 5.9%

Fuerzas Libanesas (FL) 3.8%

Movimiento Marada (MM) 2.4%

ReLebanon 2.0%

Polymarket

$523,065 Vol.

Movimiento Amal (Amal) 5.9%

Fuerzas Libanesas (FL) 3.8%

Movimiento Marada (MM) 2.4%

ReLebanon 2.0%

Polymarket

$523,065 Vol.

Movimiento Amal (Amal)

$53,497 Vol.

6%

Fuerzas Libanesas (FL)

$157,839 Vol.

4%

Movimiento Marada (MM)

$2,916 Vol.

2%

ReLebanon

$2,679 Vol.

2%

Grupo Islámico (IG)

$3,323 Vol.

2%

Partido Taqaddom

$5,431 Vol.

1%

Partido de la Unión (UP)

$2,860 Vol.

1%

Partido Nacional Liberal (PNL)

$3,940 Vol.

1%

Asociación de Proyectos Caritativos Islámicos (ICPA)

$3,637 Vol.

1%

Alianza Watani (Watani)

$3,660 Vol.

1%

Hezbolá (Hezb)

$43,639 Vol.

1%

Organización Naserista Popular (PNO)

$3,454 Vol.

1%

Partido Kataeb (Kataeb)

$3,985 Vol.

1%

Movimiento Patriótico Libre (FPM)

$73,303 Vol.

<1%

Partido del Diálogo Nacional (NDP)

$41,878 Vol.

<1%

Federación Revolucionaria Armenia (FRA)

$5,095 Vol.

<1%

Partido Mada (Mada)

$24,353 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Partido Socialdemócrata (Lana)

$4,430 Vol.

<1%

Partido Socialista Progresista (PSP)

$47,445 Vol.

<1%

Partido Baaz Árabe Socialista en Líbano (Baaz)

$6,552 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$3,318 Vol.

<1%

Movimiento de la Independencia (IM)

$3,125 Vol.

<1%

Movimiento Dignidad (MD)

$22,705 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus reflects profound uncertainty in Lebanon's parliamentary landscape following parliament's March 2026 vote to postpone May elections to 2028, citing the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire's fallout, mass displacement, and humanitarian crisis, with 76 votes extending the current mandate amid stalled border talks. Amal Movement edges as implied leader at under 6% due to Speaker Nabih Berri's enduring Shia influence and alliance ties, while Lebanese Forces trails on Christian opposition to Hezbollah but lacks broad consolidation. Recent Sunni MP unity under Fouad Makhzoumi signals anti-Hezbollah realignment favoring state sovereignty and direct Israel negotiations, yet fragmented alternatives like Marada's pro-stability Christian base prevent clear frontrunners. Confessional seat allocations and coalition negotiations remain pivotal; economic recovery, Hezbollah disarmament progress, or snap election triggers could rally support behind reformist or traditional blocs.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volumen
$523,065
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus reflects profound uncertainty in Lebanon's parliamentary landscape following parliament's March 2026 vote to postpone May elections to 2028, citing the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire's fallout, mass displacement, and humanitarian crisis, with 76 votes extending the current mandate amid stalled border talks. Amal Movement edges as implied leader at under 6% due to Speaker Nabih Berri's enduring Shia influence and alliance ties, while Lebanese Forces trails on Christian opposition to Hezbollah but lacks broad consolidation. Recent Sunni MP unity under Fouad Makhzoumi signals anti-Hezbollah realignment favoring state sovereignty and direct Israel negotiations, yet fragmented alternatives like Marada's pro-stability Christian base prevent clear frontrunners. Confessional seat allocations and coalition negotiations remain pivotal; economic recovery, Hezbollah disarmament progress, or snap election triggers could rally support behind reformist or traditional blocs.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volumen
$523,065
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 23 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Movimiento Amal (Amal)" con 6%, seguido de "Fuerzas Libanesas (FL)" con 4%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 6¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 6% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" ha generado $523.1K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 6, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano", explora los 23 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" es "Movimiento Amal (Amal)" con solo 6%, con "Fuerzas Libanesas (FL)" muy cerca con 4%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias del Líbano" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.