G2 Esports enters the LEC 2026 Spring playoffs as the clear trader favorite at 57.5 percent implied probability thanks to a dominant regular-season finish and recent head-to-head results that include a 2-0 sweep of Karmine Corp ending KC’s undefeated streak. The double-elimination bracket sets up an immediate upper-bracket clash between G2 and KC on May 23, where G2’s superior game differential, Caps’ consistent Player of the Series form, and roster stability give them the edge in best-of-five resilience. Karmine Corp at 27 percent remains dangerous after an eight-win streak and strong mid-season momentum but must overcome that direct loss and stylistic vulnerabilities exposed in the Madrid road games. Movistar KOI at 10.5 percent and Team Vitality at 7 percent sit behind the top seeds with recent volatility in their records, while Natus Vincere and GIANTX trail at 1.4 percent and 0.4 percent respectively given their lower seeding and limited path to the title.