Trader consensus on no magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles area before 2027 reflects the extremely low short-term probability over the remaining months of 2026. USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity, with recent events near LA limited to magnitudes below 3.0 and no foreshock sequences or strain accumulation patterns indicating imminent rupture on major faults like the San Andreas or Puente Hills. Long-term forecasts place roughly 60% odds for a magnitude 6.7+ event within 30 years, consistent with historical recurrence intervals of decades to centuries, but the compressed window lacks supporting indicators such as elevated seismicity or official alerts. While fault stress levels remain a concern and models carry uncertainty, absent new precursors or a sudden model shift, the current data sustain the strong market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Terremoto de magnitud 6.5+ en Los Ángeles antes de 2027?
¿Terremoto de magnitud 6.5+ en Los Ángeles antes de 2027?
6% probabilidad
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
31 dic 2026
6% probabilidad
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on no magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles area before 2027 reflects the extremely low short-term probability over the remaining months of 2026. USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity, with recent events near LA limited to magnitudes below 3.0 and no foreshock sequences or strain accumulation patterns indicating imminent rupture on major faults like the San Andreas or Puente Hills. Long-term forecasts place roughly 60% odds for a magnitude 6.7+ event within 30 years, consistent with historical recurrence intervals of decades to centuries, but the compressed window lacks supporting indicators such as elevated seismicity or official alerts. While fault stress levels remain a concern and models carry uncertainty, absent new precursors or a sudden model shift, the current data sustain the strong market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volumen
$16,533Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on no magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles area before 2027 reflects the extremely low short-term probability over the remaining months of 2026. USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity, with recent events near LA limited to magnitudes below 3.0 and no foreshock sequences or strain accumulation patterns indicating imminent rupture on major faults like the San Andreas or Puente Hills. Long-term forecasts place roughly 60% odds for a magnitude 6.7+ event within 30 years, consistent with historical recurrence intervals of decades to centuries, but the compressed window lacks supporting indicators such as elevated seismicity or official alerts. While fault stress levels remain a concern and models carry uncertainty, absent new precursors or a sudden model shift, the current data sustain the strong market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$16,533Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on no magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles area before 2027 reflects the extremely low short-term probability over the remaining months of 2026. USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity, with recent events near LA limited to magnitudes below 3.0 and no foreshock sequences or strain accumulation patterns indicating imminent rupture on major faults like the San Andreas or Puente Hills. Long-term forecasts place roughly 60% odds for a magnitude 6.7+ event within 30 years, consistent with historical recurrence intervals of decades to centuries, but the compressed window lacks supporting indicators such as elevated seismicity or official alerts. While fault stress levels remain a concern and models carry uncertainty, absent new precursors or a sudden model shift, the current data sustain the strong market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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