Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey's reelection bid in Maryland's 4th Congressional District drives the strong trader consensus favoring Democrats at over 90%, reflecting the district's D+40 partisan lean per recent analyses and Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic rating. No credible Republican challenger has filed ahead of the June 23, 2026, primaries, leaving the GOP path-to-victory reliant on an unproven recruit amid historical incumbency advantages in deep-blue seats, where similar districts see reelection rates above 95%. Absent major catalysts like a primary upset for Ivey, personal scandal, health issues, or a national Republican wave, the odds remain heavily tilted; late developments before November could narrow the gap if a strong GOP contender emerges post-primary.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMD-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
MD-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$23,185 Vol.
$23,185 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
93%
Partido Republicano
7%
$23,185 Vol.
$23,185 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$7,857 Vol.
93%
Partido Republicano
$15,328 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey's reelection bid in Maryland's 4th Congressional District drives the strong trader consensus favoring Democrats at over 90%, reflecting the district's D+40 partisan lean per recent analyses and Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic rating. No credible Republican challenger has filed ahead of the June 23, 2026, primaries, leaving the GOP path-to-victory reliant on an unproven recruit amid historical incumbency advantages in deep-blue seats, where similar districts see reelection rates above 95%. Absent major catalysts like a primary upset for Ivey, personal scandal, health issues, or a national Republican wave, the odds remain heavily tilted; late developments before November could narrow the gap if a strong GOP contender emerges post-primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$23,185Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey's reelection bid in Maryland's 4th Congressional District drives the strong trader consensus favoring Democrats at over 90%, reflecting the district's D+40 partisan lean per recent analyses and Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic rating. No credible Republican challenger has filed ahead of the June 23, 2026, primaries, leaving the GOP path-to-victory reliant on an unproven recruit amid historical incumbency advantages in deep-blue seats, where similar districts see reelection rates above 95%. Absent major catalysts like a primary upset for Ivey, personal scandal, health issues, or a national Republican wave, the odds remain heavily tilted; late developments before November could narrow the gap if a strong GOP contender emerges post-primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$23,185Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey's reelection bid in Maryland's 4th Congressional District drives the strong trader consensus favoring Democrats at over 90%, reflecting the district's D+40 partisan lean per recent analyses and Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic rating. No credible Republican challenger has filed ahead of the June 23, 2026, primaries, leaving the GOP path-to-victory reliant on an unproven recruit amid historical incumbency advantages in deep-blue seats, where similar districts see reelection rates above 95%. Absent major catalysts like a primary upset for Ivey, personal scandal, health issues, or a national Republican wave, the odds remain heavily tilted; late developments before November could narrow the gap if a strong GOP contender emerges post-primary.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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