**Internal Republican divisions and a narrow House majority are the main drivers of trader sentiment on whether Speaker Mike Johnson will be removed soon.** Hardline conservatives, led by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, filed a motion to vacate in early October 2026, citing frustration over spending deals, continuing resolutions to avert shutdowns, and slow progress on priority legislation. Greene, joined by Reps. Thomas Massie and others, met with Johnson on October 4 for extended discussions, with a follow-up scheduled shortly after; Johnson has publicly stated he is not resigning and will not seek rule changes to raise the threshold for such motions. The one-vote GOP margin amplifies these pressures, as any defection can stall floor action or force compromises. Johnson continues to emphasize legislative output and midterm campaigning in 21 key districts ahead of November elections, where Republican control is at stake. Traders are watching whether Greene activates the privileged motion, any floor vote materializes before the midterms, or negotiations produce a short-term truce. Historical precedent shows thin majorities heighten ouster risks, though Johnson has so far maintained enough support to remain in the chair.