Incumbent Democrat Betty McCollum's strong performance in the August 11, 2026, Democratic primary and the district's consistent partisan composition drive the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in Minnesota's 4th congressional district. The Saint Paul-centered area has delivered Democratic margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles, reinforced by McCollum's long tenure and name recognition since 2001. Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom's primary victory establishes a general election matchup on November 3, yet the district's voter base and historical results create significant structural barriers to an upset. Late developments such as unexpected national economic shifts or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though current conditions point to limited volatility before election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes MN-04
Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes MN-04
$21,291 Vol.
$21,291 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
6%
$21,291 Vol.
$21,291 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$3,902 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$17,390 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Betty McCollum's strong performance in the August 11, 2026, Democratic primary and the district's consistent partisan composition drive the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in Minnesota's 4th congressional district. The Saint Paul-centered area has delivered Democratic margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles, reinforced by McCollum's long tenure and name recognition since 2001. Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom's primary victory establishes a general election matchup on November 3, yet the district's voter base and historical results create significant structural barriers to an upset. Late developments such as unexpected national economic shifts or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though current conditions point to limited volatility before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$21,291Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Betty McCollum's strong performance in the August 11, 2026, Democratic primary and the district's consistent partisan composition drive the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in Minnesota's 4th congressional district. The Saint Paul-centered area has delivered Democratic margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles, reinforced by McCollum's long tenure and name recognition since 2001. Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom's primary victory establishes a general election matchup on November 3, yet the district's voter base and historical results create significant structural barriers to an upset. Late developments such as unexpected national economic shifts or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though current conditions point to limited volatility before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$21,291Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Betty McCollum's strong performance in the August 11, 2026, Democratic primary and the district's consistent partisan composition drive the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in Minnesota's 4th congressional district. The Saint Paul-centered area has delivered Democratic margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles, reinforced by McCollum's long tenure and name recognition since 2001. Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom's primary victory establishes a general election matchup on November 3, yet the district's voter base and historical results create significant structural barriers to an upset. Late developments such as unexpected national economic shifts or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though current conditions point to limited volatility before election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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