Incumbent Republican Ann Wagner seeks a seventh term in Missouri’s 2nd congressional district, a suburban St. Louis area rated Solid Republican by major forecasters. The seat’s partisan voting index and Wagner’s consistent reelection margins, most recently 54.5% in 2024, underpin the Republican Party’s 76.5% implied probability. Multiple Republican primary challengers have filed, yet Wagner maintains substantial cash reserves ahead of the August 4 primaries. Democrats have placed the district on their target list for the first time since 2020, fielding several primary candidates, but face structural headwinds from redistricting that strengthened the GOP tilt. No major developments have altered the race since early 2025 targeting announcements, leaving the current trader consensus aligned with historical patterns favoring the incumbent party in similar districts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMO-02 House Election Winner
MO-02 House Election Winner
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
77%
Democratic Party
21%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
$3,178 Vol.
77%
Democratic Party
$2,238 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ann Wagner seeks a seventh term in Missouri’s 2nd congressional district, a suburban St. Louis area rated Solid Republican by major forecasters. The seat’s partisan voting index and Wagner’s consistent reelection margins, most recently 54.5% in 2024, underpin the Republican Party’s 76.5% implied probability. Multiple Republican primary challengers have filed, yet Wagner maintains substantial cash reserves ahead of the August 4 primaries. Democrats have placed the district on their target list for the first time since 2020, fielding several primary candidates, but face structural headwinds from redistricting that strengthened the GOP tilt. No major developments have altered the race since early 2025 targeting announcements, leaving the current trader consensus aligned with historical patterns favoring the incumbent party in similar districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$5,416Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ann Wagner seeks a seventh term in Missouri’s 2nd congressional district, a suburban St. Louis area rated Solid Republican by major forecasters. The seat’s partisan voting index and Wagner’s consistent reelection margins, most recently 54.5% in 2024, underpin the Republican Party’s 76.5% implied probability. Multiple Republican primary challengers have filed, yet Wagner maintains substantial cash reserves ahead of the August 4 primaries. Democrats have placed the district on their target list for the first time since 2020, fielding several primary candidates, but face structural headwinds from redistricting that strengthened the GOP tilt. No major developments have altered the race since early 2025 targeting announcements, leaving the current trader consensus aligned with historical patterns favoring the incumbent party in similar districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$5,416Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Ann Wagner seeks a seventh term in Missouri’s 2nd congressional district, a suburban St. Louis area rated Solid Republican by major forecasters. The seat’s partisan voting index and Wagner’s consistent reelection margins, most recently 54.5% in 2024, underpin the Republican Party’s 76.5% implied probability. Multiple Republican primary challengers have filed, yet Wagner maintains substantial cash reserves ahead of the August 4 primaries. Democrats have placed the district on their target list for the first time since 2020, fielding several primary candidates, but face structural headwinds from redistricting that strengthened the GOP tilt. No major developments have altered the race since early 2025 targeting announcements, leaving the current trader consensus aligned with historical patterns favoring the incumbent party in similar districts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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