Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with a decisive margin over challengers, positioning him for the November general election against Democrat Jordan Herrera. Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and Alford's 71 percent share of the 2024 general election vote. The absence of competitive Democratic polling, fundraising disparities, and the district's consistent electoral math reinforce trader consensus around Republican retention. Potential shifts could arise from late-cycle national headwinds, a major candidate-specific development, or unusually high Democratic turnout in rural areas, though historical patterns and current structural factors limit such scenarios.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMO-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
MO-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$44,542 Vol.
$44,542 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
92%
Partido Demócrata
9%
$44,542 Vol.
$44,542 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$28,293 Vol.
92%
Partido Demócrata
$16,249 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with a decisive margin over challengers, positioning him for the November general election against Democrat Jordan Herrera. Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and Alford's 71 percent share of the 2024 general election vote. The absence of competitive Democratic polling, fundraising disparities, and the district's consistent electoral math reinforce trader consensus around Republican retention. Potential shifts could arise from late-cycle national headwinds, a major candidate-specific development, or unusually high Democratic turnout in rural areas, though historical patterns and current structural factors limit such scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volumen
$44,542Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with a decisive margin over challengers, positioning him for the November general election against Democrat Jordan Herrera. Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and Alford's 71 percent share of the 2024 general election vote. The absence of competitive Democratic polling, fundraising disparities, and the district's consistent electoral math reinforce trader consensus around Republican retention. Potential shifts could arise from late-cycle national headwinds, a major candidate-specific development, or unusually high Democratic turnout in rural areas, though historical patterns and current structural factors limit such scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$44,542Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mark Alford secured his party's nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with a decisive margin over challengers, positioning him for the November general election against Democrat Jordan Herrera. Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its partisan voting index and Alford's 71 percent share of the 2024 general election vote. The absence of competitive Democratic polling, fundraising disparities, and the district's consistent electoral math reinforce trader consensus around Republican retention. Potential shifts could arise from late-cycle national headwinds, a major candidate-specific development, or unusually high Democratic turnout in rural areas, though historical patterns and current structural factors limit such scenarios.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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