Recent seismic and volcanic monitoring data from agencies like the USGS support traders' 77.5% implied probability favoring "No" for a major natural disaster in 2026. No magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes or VEI 6+ eruptions have occurred, consistent with their historical rarity of roughly one every few decades. Ongoing events such as the August 2026 Colombia 7.4-magnitude quake, Japan's July 6.8 event, and U.S. wildfires fall short of extreme thresholds. Forecast models and early warning systems show no imminent signals of escalation through year-end, though atmospheric and tectonic variability could alter trajectories before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Desastre natural en 2026?
¿Desastre natural en 2026?
Sí
23% probabilidad
$240,525 Vol.
$240,525 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
23% probabilidad
$240,525 Vol.
$240,525 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Recent seismic and volcanic monitoring data from agencies like the USGS support traders' 77.5% implied probability favoring "No" for a major natural disaster in 2026. No magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes or VEI 6+ eruptions have occurred, consistent with their historical rarity of roughly one every few decades. Ongoing events such as the August 2026 Colombia 7.4-magnitude quake, Japan's July 6.8 event, and U.S. wildfires fall short of extreme thresholds. Forecast models and early warning systems show no imminent signals of escalation through year-end, though atmospheric and tectonic variability could alter trajectories before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$240,525Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Recent seismic and volcanic monitoring data from agencies like the USGS support traders' 77.5% implied probability favoring "No" for a major natural disaster in 2026. No magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes or VEI 6+ eruptions have occurred, consistent with their historical rarity of roughly one every few decades. Ongoing events such as the August 2026 Colombia 7.4-magnitude quake, Japan's July 6.8 event, and U.S. wildfires fall short of extreme thresholds. Forecast models and early warning systems show no imminent signals of escalation through year-end, though atmospheric and tectonic variability could alter trajectories before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$240,525Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent seismic and volcanic monitoring data from agencies like the USGS support traders' 77.5% implied probability favoring "No" for a major natural disaster in 2026. No magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes or VEI 6+ eruptions have occurred, consistent with their historical rarity of roughly one every few decades. Ongoing events such as the August 2026 Colombia 7.4-magnitude quake, Japan's July 6.8 event, and U.S. wildfires fall short of extreme thresholds. Forecast models and early warning systems show no imminent signals of escalation through year-end, though atmospheric and tectonic variability could alter trajectories before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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