**Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns roughly 73% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying catastrophic natural disaster in 2026**, reflecting the low historical frequency of events meeting the market’s strict thresholds, such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or major meteor impact. Official USGS seismic monitoring and global volcano observatories show no current indicators of such extreme activity through mid-August 2026, while the developing El Niño pattern—forecast by the WMO to persist—typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane intensity and does not elevate geological risks. Routine disasters occur annually, but the resolution criteria target tail-risk events with multi-decadal return periods. Remaining forecast windows through year-end and ongoing satellite and ground-based surveillance will provide the next key data points, though model consensus and recent observational records continue to support the market’s cautious positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Desastre natural en 2026?
¿Desastre natural en 2026?
Sí
27% probabilidad
$240,264 Vol.
$240,264 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
27% probabilidad
$240,264 Vol.
$240,264 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns roughly 73% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying catastrophic natural disaster in 2026**, reflecting the low historical frequency of events meeting the market’s strict thresholds, such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or major meteor impact. Official USGS seismic monitoring and global volcano observatories show no current indicators of such extreme activity through mid-August 2026, while the developing El Niño pattern—forecast by the WMO to persist—typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane intensity and does not elevate geological risks. Routine disasters occur annually, but the resolution criteria target tail-risk events with multi-decadal return periods. Remaining forecast windows through year-end and ongoing satellite and ground-based surveillance will provide the next key data points, though model consensus and recent observational records continue to support the market’s cautious positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$240,264Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns roughly 73% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying catastrophic natural disaster in 2026**, reflecting the low historical frequency of events meeting the market’s strict thresholds, such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or major meteor impact. Official USGS seismic monitoring and global volcano observatories show no current indicators of such extreme activity through mid-August 2026, while the developing El Niño pattern—forecast by the WMO to persist—typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane intensity and does not elevate geological risks. Routine disasters occur annually, but the resolution criteria target tail-risk events with multi-decadal return periods. Remaining forecast windows through year-end and ongoing satellite and ground-based surveillance will provide the next key data points, though model consensus and recent observational records continue to support the market’s cautious positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$240,264Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns roughly 73% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying catastrophic natural disaster in 2026**, reflecting the low historical frequency of events meeting the market’s strict thresholds, such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, or major meteor impact. Official USGS seismic monitoring and global volcano observatories show no current indicators of such extreme activity through mid-August 2026, while the developing El Niño pattern—forecast by the WMO to persist—typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane intensity and does not elevate geological risks. Routine disasters occur annually, but the resolution criteria target tail-risk events with multi-decadal return periods. Remaining forecast windows through year-end and ongoing satellite and ground-based surveillance will provide the next key data points, though model consensus and recent observational records continue to support the market’s cautious positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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