Nawaf Salam, who assumed Lebanon’s premiership in February 2025 amid post-ceasefire reconstruction efforts, faces a closely balanced outlook for remaining in office through 2026. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over his ability to advance political reforms, seat a new parliament, and manage Hezbollah disarmament south of the Litani River while securing international backing for economic recovery. Recent diplomatic progress, including talks with Syria and direct negotiations with Israel, has supported continuity, yet persistent domestic security challenges and coalition pressures create pathways for early government change. Outcomes hinge on reform momentum and parliamentary dynamics, with any escalation in internal divisions or stalled legislation likely to shift probabilities toward an earlier exit.