Nawaf Salam has served as Lebanon’s prime minister since February 2025, heading a transitional cabinet formed after parliamentary consultations and confirmed under President Joseph Aoun. As of mid-August 2026 he remains in office, actively managing diplomatic engagement with the United States and Israel over southern Lebanon withdrawals, reconstruction priorities, and efforts to strengthen state institutions while Hezbollah influence stays limited. No verified moves toward resignation, dismissal, or coalition collapse have emerged, and scheduled parliamentary elections in May 2026 have not yet produced an immediate leadership change. Traders therefore assign an 89.5 percent implied probability that Salam will not cease to hold the premiership before December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of acute political or institutional triggers that would force an earlier exit.