Stephen Curry's deep loyalty to the Golden State Warriors, reinforced by 17 seasons with the franchise and ongoing extension discussions ahead of his August 29 eligibility, underpins trader confidence in a "No" outcome at 97.8% implied probability. At age 38 and entering the final year of a $62.6 million deal, Curry has shown consistent interest in remaining via Bird rights, while Warriors executives including GM Mike Dunleavy have publicly stated plans for him to finish his career in San Francisco amid mutual extension talks. No credible trade requests or departure signals have emerged despite roster uncertainty. Realistic factors that could still shift odds include a significant injury altering his playing status, failed extension negotiations leading to unrestricted free agency next summer, or unforeseen personal circumstances prompting a late change.