Friedrich Merz’s CDU suffered heavy state-election losses on September 20, 2026, including a record-low result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and second place in Berlin, intensifying coalition strains and media talk of a possible early leadership change before the 2029 federal vote. Traders assign roughly even odds to no new chancellor by 2028, with North Rhine-Westphalia’s Hendrik Wüst and Bavaria’s Markus Söder priced as the clearest alternatives at 24% and 21%. Weak economic performance, AfD gains in the east, and internal Union pressure create the main catalysts that could accelerate a transition or force Merz to consolidate support through the remainder of the term.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo habrá próximo Canciller antes de 2028 49%
Hendrik Wüst 23%
Markus Söder 21%
Boris Pistorius 9%
$28,787 Vol.
$28,787 Vol.
31 dic 2029
No habrá próximo Canciller antes de 2028
49%
Hendrik Wüst
23%
Markus Söder
21%
Boris Pistorius
9%
Alice Weidel
2%
Sahra Wagenknecht
2%
Tino Chrupalla
1%
Felix Banaszak
1%
Heidi Reichinnek
1%
Katharina Dröge
1%
Carsten Linnemann
1%
Jens Spahn
1%
Lars Klingbeil
1%
No habrá próximo Canciller antes de 2028 49%
Hendrik Wüst 23%
Markus Söder 21%
Boris Pistorius 9%
$28,787 Vol.
$28,787 Vol.
31 dic 2029
No habrá próximo Canciller antes de 2028
$22,513 Vol.
49%
Hendrik Wüst
$1,671 Vol.
23%
Markus Söder
$1,348 Vol.
21%
Boris Pistorius
$683 Vol.
9%
Alice Weidel
$429 Vol.
2%
Sahra Wagenknecht
$228 Vol.
2%
Tino Chrupalla
$228 Vol.
1%
Felix Banaszak
$448 Vol.
1%
Heidi Reichinnek
$238 Vol.
1%
Katharina Dröge
$263 Vol.
1%
Carsten Linnemann
$236 Vol.
1%
Jens Spahn
$238 Vol.
1%
Lars Klingbeil
$264 Vol.
1%
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz’s CDU suffered heavy state-election losses on September 20, 2026, including a record-low result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and second place in Berlin, intensifying coalition strains and media talk of a possible early leadership change before the 2029 federal vote. Traders assign roughly even odds to no new chancellor by 2028, with North Rhine-Westphalia’s Hendrik Wüst and Bavaria’s Markus Söder priced as the clearest alternatives at 24% and 21%. Weak economic performance, AfD gains in the east, and internal Union pressure create the main catalysts that could accelerate a transition or force Merz to consolidate support through the remainder of the term.
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET
Volumen
$28,787Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2028Mercado abierto
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz’s CDU suffered heavy state-election losses on September 20, 2026, including a record-low result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and second place in Berlin, intensifying coalition strains and media talk of a possible early leadership change before the 2029 federal vote. Traders assign roughly even odds to no new chancellor by 2028, with North Rhine-Westphalia’s Hendrik Wüst and Bavaria’s Markus Söder priced as the clearest alternatives at 24% and 21%. Weak economic performance, AfD gains in the east, and internal Union pressure create the main catalysts that could accelerate a transition or force Merz to consolidate support through the remainder of the term.
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$28,787Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2028Mercado abierto
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Friedrich Merz’s CDU suffered heavy state-election losses on September 20, 2026, including a record-low result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and second place in Berlin, intensifying coalition strains and media talk of a possible early leadership change before the 2029 federal vote. Traders assign roughly even odds to no new chancellor by 2028, with North Rhine-Westphalia’s Hendrik Wüst and Bavaria’s Markus Söder priced as the clearest alternatives at 24% and 21%. Weak economic performance, AfD gains in the east, and internal Union pressure create the main catalysts that could accelerate a transition or force Merz to consolidate support through the remainder of the term.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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