Skip to main content
icon for Próximas elecciones presidenciales francesas
Elecciones·Elecciones Globales

Próximas elecciones presidenciales francesas

icon for Próximas elecciones presidenciales francesas
Elecciones·Elecciones Globales

Próximas elecciones presidenciales francesas

Jordan Bardella 23%

Édouard Philippe 20%

Título del ítem del grupo: Jean-Luc Mélenchon 11%

Marine Le Pen 6%

Polymarket

$72,961,118 Vol.

Jordan Bardella 23%

Édouard Philippe 20%

Título del ítem del grupo: Jean-Luc Mélenchon 11%

Marine Le Pen 6%

Polymarket

$72,961,118 Vol.

icon for Jordan Bardella

Jordan Bardella

$898,322 Vol.

23%

icon for Édouard Philippe

Édouard Philippe

$707,900 Vol.

20%

icon for Título del ítem del grupo: Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Título del ítem del grupo: Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$558,371 Vol.

11%

icon for Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen

$527,847 Vol.

6%

icon for Dominique de Villepin

Dominique de Villepin

$1,208,267 Vol.

5%

icon for David Lisnard

David Lisnard

$1,158,812 Vol.

5%

icon for François Hollande

François Hollande

$1,022,979 Vol.

5%

icon for Gabriel Attal

Gabriel Attal

$1,243,373 Vol.

3%

icon for Título del elemento de grupo: Bruno Retailleau

Título del elemento de grupo: Bruno Retailleau

$1,368,457 Vol.

3%

icon for Título del ítem de grupo: Raphaël Glucksmann

Título del ítem de grupo: Raphaël Glucksmann

$842,989 Vol.

2%

icon for Sarah Knafo

Sarah Knafo

$1,306,565 Vol.

2%

icon for Éric Zemmour

Éric Zemmour

$1,482,638 Vol.

1%

icon for Sébastien Lecornu

Sébastien Lecornu

$901,505 Vol.

1%

icon for Título del ítem del grupo: Jean Castex

Título del ítem del grupo: Jean Castex

$741,777 Vol.

1%

icon for Juan Branco

Juan Branco

$1,376,542 Vol.

1%

icon for Bernard Cazeneuve

Bernard Cazeneuve

$1,271,084 Vol.

1%

icon for Laurent Wauquiez

Laurent Wauquiez

$2,098,176 Vol.

1%

icon for Valérie Pécresse

Valérie Pécresse

$2,637,927 Vol.

1%

icon for Gérald Darmanin

Gérald Darmanin

$755,525 Vol.

1%

icon for Clémence Guetté

Clémence Guetté

$2,732,504 Vol.

1%

icon for Fabien Roussel

Fabien Roussel

$2,197,095 Vol.

1%

icon for François Asselineau

François Asselineau

$3,590,400 Vol.

1%

icon for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$2,849,251 Vol.

1%

icon for François Ruffin

François Ruffin

$1,567,404 Vol.

1%

icon for Marine Tondelier

Marine Tondelier

$2,133,185 Vol.

1%

icon for Ségolène Royal

Ségolène Royal

$3,167,160 Vol.

1%

icon for Clémentine Autain

Clémentine Autain

$3,071,012 Vol.

1%

icon for Yaël Braun-Pivet

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$3,835,051 Vol.

1%

icon for Mathilde Panot

Mathilde Panot

$3,588,104 Vol.

1%

icon for Élisabeth Borne

Élisabeth Borne

$3,366,585 Vol.

1%

icon for Carole Delga

Carole Delga

$2,709,264 Vol.

1%

icon for Manuel Bompard

Manuel Bompard

$3,008,776 Vol.

1%

icon for Xavier Bertrand

Xavier Bertrand

$3,298,013 Vol.

1%

icon for Olivier Faure

Olivier Faure

$2,532,681 Vol.

1%

icon for Michel Barnier

Michel Barnier

$3,408,078 Vol.

1%

icon for François Bayrou

François Bayrou

$3,798,061 Vol.

1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent political developments have kept the field for France's April 2027 presidential election unusually open, with Jordan Bardella of the National Rally and Édouard Philippe of Horizons trading within a few points of each other at the top of trader consensus. Bardella's lead reflects sustained National Rally strength in first-round polling despite the party's limited municipal gains in March, while Philippe narrowed the gap after launching his campaign last week and positioning himself as the strongest runoff alternative to the far right. Jean-Luc Mélenchon's May 3 confirmation of a fourth bid has consolidated some left-wing support but also underscored ongoing divisions between La France Insoumise and more moderate socialist and green factions. Marine Le Pen's low share stems directly from her pending July 7 appeal of the embezzlement conviction and five-year office ban; a ruling upholding the disqualification would likely shift additional probability toward Bardella. The crowded field of more than thirty declared or potential candidates, combined with post-2024 parliamentary instability, continues to suppress any single contender's implied probability below 25 percent.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volumen
$72,961,118
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2027
Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent political developments have kept the field for France's April 2027 presidential election unusually open, with Jordan Bardella of the National Rally and Édouard Philippe of Horizons trading within a few points of each other at the top of trader consensus. Bardella's lead reflects sustained National Rally strength in first-round polling despite the party's limited municipal gains in March, while Philippe narrowed the gap after launching his campaign last week and positioning himself as the strongest runoff alternative to the far right. Jean-Luc Mélenchon's May 3 confirmation of a fourth bid has consolidated some left-wing support but also underscored ongoing divisions between La France Insoumise and more moderate socialist and green factions. Marine Le Pen's low share stems directly from her pending July 7 appeal of the embezzlement conviction and five-year office ban; a ruling upholding the disqualification would likely shift additional probability toward Bardella. The crowded field of more than thirty declared or potential candidates, combined with post-2024 parliamentary instability, continues to suppress any single contender's implied probability below 25 percent.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volumen
$72,961,118
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2027
Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Próximas elecciones presidenciales francesas" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 36 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Jordan Bardella" con 23%, seguido de "Édouard Philippe" con 20%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 23¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 23% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Próximas elecciones presidenciales francesas" ha generado $73 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 13, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Próximas elecciones presidenciales francesas", explora los 36 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Próximas elecciones presidenciales francesas" es "Jordan Bardella" con 23%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 23% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Édouard Philippe" con 20%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Próximas elecciones presidenciales francesas" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.