Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leads the market at 71.5% because recent opinion polls show his Parti Québécois ahead of other parties ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election, with roughly 30% support compared to the Liberals near 27% and the Coalition Avenir Québec near 21%. Christine Fréchette’s selection as CAQ leader and premier in April 2026 initially boosted her party’s standing, yet satisfaction with her government has since declined and her implied probability sits at 13.2%. Charles Milliard, who became Liberal leader in February 2026, trades at 14% amid a split federalist vote. Lower-priced candidates face structural barriers in seat projections and party support levels, while the election timeline and ongoing polling trends remain the main variables that could shift these trader-assessed probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPróximo Primer Ministro de Quebec
Próximo Primer Ministro de Quebec
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon 72%
Charles Milliard 14%
Christine Fréchette 13.2%
Bernard Drainville <1%
$242,804 Vol.
$242,804 Vol.
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon
72%
Charles Milliard
14%
Christine Fréchette
13%
Bernard Drainville
<1%
Sol Zanetti
<1%
Éric Duhaime
<1%
Ruba Ghazal
<1%
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon 72%
Charles Milliard 14%
Christine Fréchette 13.2%
Bernard Drainville <1%
$242,804 Vol.
$242,804 Vol.
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon
72%
Charles Milliard
14%
Christine Fréchette
13%
Bernard Drainville
<1%
Sol Zanetti
<1%
Éric Duhaime
<1%
Ruba Ghazal
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 1, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leads the market at 71.5% because recent opinion polls show his Parti Québécois ahead of other parties ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election, with roughly 30% support compared to the Liberals near 27% and the Coalition Avenir Québec near 21%. Christine Fréchette’s selection as CAQ leader and premier in April 2026 initially boosted her party’s standing, yet satisfaction with her government has since declined and her implied probability sits at 13.2%. Charles Milliard, who became Liberal leader in February 2026, trades at 14% amid a split federalist vote. Lower-priced candidates face structural barriers in seat projections and party support levels, while the election timeline and ongoing polling trends remain the main variables that could shift these trader-assessed probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes