Aleksandar Vučić’s formal nomination by the Serbian Progressive Party as its prime ministerial candidate on the United Serbia list for the October 25 snap parliamentary elections underpins his 52% implied probability. His planned resignation from the presidency by late September clears the constitutional path for the move, as his second term ends in 2027. Sustained student-led protests since the 2024 Novi Sad station collapse and recent polling showing the ruling list near 49% versus a consolidated Student List near 37% keep the contest tight. Outcomes hinge on whether the SNS list secures a workable majority or requires coalition talks, potential opposition gains in turnout, and post-election negotiations that could elevate lesser-priced figures such as Ilija Srdanović.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAleksandar Vučić 52.0%
Ilija Srdanović 36%
Stefan Krkobabić 5.5%
Vladan Đokić 4.4%
$412,394 Vol.
$412,394 Vol.
Aleksandar Vučić
52%
Ilija Srdanović
36%
Stefan Krkobabić
6%
Vladan Đokić
4%
Ana Brnabić
1%
Dragan Đilas
<1%
Miloš Vučević
<1%
Đuro Macut
<1%
Ivica Dačić
<1%
Branimir Jovanović
<1%
Aleksandar Vučić 52.0%
Ilija Srdanović 36%
Stefan Krkobabić 5.5%
Vladan Đokić 4.4%
$412,394 Vol.
$412,394 Vol.
Aleksandar Vučić
52%
Ilija Srdanović
36%
Stefan Krkobabić
6%
Vladan Đokić
4%
Ana Brnabić
1%
Dragan Đilas
<1%
Miloš Vučević
<1%
Đuro Macut
<1%
Ivica Dačić
<1%
Branimir Jovanović
<1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Mercado abierto: Jul 1, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Aleksandar Vučić’s formal nomination by the Serbian Progressive Party as its prime ministerial candidate on the United Serbia list for the October 25 snap parliamentary elections underpins his 52% implied probability. His planned resignation from the presidency by late September clears the constitutional path for the move, as his second term ends in 2027. Sustained student-led protests since the 2024 Novi Sad station collapse and recent polling showing the ruling list near 49% versus a consolidated Student List near 37% keep the contest tight. Outcomes hinge on whether the SNS list secures a workable majority or requires coalition talks, potential opposition gains in turnout, and post-election negotiations that could elevate lesser-priced figures such as Ilija Srdanović.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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