Incumbent Republican Jeff Van Drew holds a substantial edge in New Jersey’s 2nd congressional district, where the Republican presidential margin exceeded 12 points in 2024 and Van Drew won reelection by 17 points that year. Traders assign him a 76.5% implied probability, reflecting his long local political record, fundraising lead of roughly $2.3 million to $824,000, and the district’s voter registration advantage. Democrats added the seat to the DCCC’s target list in early October and secured a Philadelphia Inquirer endorsement for Cape May Mayor Zack Mullock on October 22, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its rating to Likely Republican on October 20. A scheduled October 22 debate and Mullock’s internal polling claims have not altered the consensus, as limited outside spending and the district’s structural Republican tilt continue to anchor expectations ahead of the November 3 election.