Recent polling shows Labour and National both below 30 percent party vote support, with Labour edging ahead by 1 point in the latest The Post survey while both major parties have slumped since June amid rising minor-party backing. The Opportunity Party crossing the 5 percent threshold and stronger showings for the Greens, NZ First, and ACT have fragmented the vote, producing projected seat totals that leave either bloc short of a majority without additional partners or overhang effects from Te Pāti Māori electorate wins. These dynamics, combined with roughly seven weeks until the 7 November election, have concentrated trader consensus on a narrow popular-vote margin between the two largest parties.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
National 0-5% 29%
Labour 0-5% 25%
Labour 10-15% 14%
Labour 5-10% 11%
$20,119 Vol.
$20,119 Vol.
6 nov 2026
Labour 15%+
9%
Labour 10-15%
14%
Labour 5-10%
11%
Labour 0-5%
25%
National 0-5%
28%
National 5-10%
3%
National 10%+
3%
Otro partido gana
1%
National 0-5% 29%
Labour 0-5% 25%
Labour 10-15% 14%
Labour 5-10% 11%
$20,119 Vol.
$20,119 Vol.
6 nov 2026
Labour 15%+
$725 Vol.
9%
Labour 10-15%
$5,700 Vol.
14%
Labour 5-10%
$770 Vol.
11%
Labour 0-5%
$1,475 Vol.
25%
National 0-5%
$2,640 Vol.
28%
National 5-10%
$938 Vol.
3%
National 10%+
$7,467 Vol.
3%
Otro partido gana
$405 Vol.
1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Recent polling shows Labour and National both below 30 percent party vote support, with Labour edging ahead by 1 point in the latest The Post survey while both major parties have slumped since June amid rising minor-party backing. The Opportunity Party crossing the 5 percent threshold and stronger showings for the Greens, NZ First, and ACT have fragmented the vote, producing projected seat totals that leave either bloc short of a majority without additional partners or overhang effects from Te Pāti Māori electorate wins. These dynamics, combined with roughly seven weeks until the 7 November election, have concentrated trader consensus on a narrow popular-vote margin between the two largest parties.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Volumen
$20,119Fecha de finalización
7 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Recent polling shows Labour and National both below 30 percent party vote support, with Labour edging ahead by 1 point in the latest The Post survey while both major parties have slumped since June amid rising minor-party backing. The Opportunity Party crossing the 5 percent threshold and stronger showings for the Greens, NZ First, and ACT have fragmented the vote, producing projected seat totals that leave either bloc short of a majority without additional partners or overhang effects from Te Pāti Māori electorate wins. These dynamics, combined with roughly seven weeks until the 7 November election, have concentrated trader consensus on a narrow popular-vote margin between the two largest parties.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Volumen
$20,119Fecha de finalización
7 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows Labour and National both below 30 percent party vote support, with Labour edging ahead by 1 point in the latest The Post survey while both major parties have slumped since June amid rising minor-party backing. The Opportunity Party crossing the 5 percent threshold and stronger showings for the Greens, NZ First, and ACT have fragmented the vote, producing projected seat totals that leave either bloc short of a majority without additional partners or overhang effects from Te Pāti Māori electorate wins. These dynamics, combined with roughly seven weeks until the 7 November election, have concentrated trader consensus on a narrow popular-vote margin between the two largest parties.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
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Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes